Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors March US annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8% (96.7% implied probability), driven by sticky shelter costs and persistent services inflation that have exceeded forecasts in recent months, as seen in February's 3.2% YoY print. Economists' median estimates from Bloomberg hover around 3.4%, bolstered by rebounding energy prices and robust wage growth data from the latest employment report. This positioning aligns with market-implied Fed funds futures pricing in limited near-term rate cuts. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected ex-shelter core CPI or a sharp energy demand drop, though historical seasonality supports elevated readings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥2,8 % 96.6%
2,6 % 1.3%
2,7 % <1%
≤2,0 % <1%
$1,928,254 Vol.
$1,928,254 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
≥2,8 %
97%
≥2,8 % 96.6%
2,6 % 1.3%
2,7 % <1%
≤2,0 % <1%
$1,928,254 Vol.
$1,928,254 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
<1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
≥2,8 %
97%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors March US annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8% (96.7% implied probability), driven by sticky shelter costs and persistent services inflation that have exceeded forecasts in recent months, as seen in February's 3.2% YoY print. Economists' median estimates from Bloomberg hover around 3.4%, bolstered by rebounding energy prices and robust wage growth data from the latest employment report. This positioning aligns with market-implied Fed funds futures pricing in limited near-term rate cuts. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected ex-shelter core CPI or a sharp energy demand drop, though historical seasonality supports elevated readings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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