Polymarket traders price a March CPI year-over-year reading in the higher brackets, with ≥3.4% leading at 49.8% implied probability and 3.3% close behind at 30.3%, reflecting consensus for a rebound from February's steady 2.4% print. The primary driver is the Cleveland Fed's March 31 nowcast of 3.25% headline CPI, propelled by a surge in crude oil above $107 per barrel and gasoline prices up nearly 22% amid geopolitical tensions, amplifying energy's pass-through impact. University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations spiked to 3.8% in late March, while FOMC March projections raised 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%. Core CPI nowcast holds at 2.6%, underscoring headline volatility; resolution awaits BLS data on April 10.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥3,4 % 49.8%
3,3 % 30.3%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 3.1%
$838,356 Vol.
$838,356 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
1%
3,1 %
3%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
30%
≥3,4 %
50%
≥3,4 % 49.8%
3,3 % 30.3%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 3.1%
$838,356 Vol.
$838,356 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
1%
3,1 %
3%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
30%
≥3,4 %
50%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a March CPI year-over-year reading in the higher brackets, with ≥3.4% leading at 49.8% implied probability and 3.3% close behind at 30.3%, reflecting consensus for a rebound from February's steady 2.4% print. The primary driver is the Cleveland Fed's March 31 nowcast of 3.25% headline CPI, propelled by a surge in crude oil above $107 per barrel and gasoline prices up nearly 22% amid geopolitical tensions, amplifying energy's pass-through impact. University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations spiked to 3.8% in late March, while FOMC March projections raised 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%. Core CPI nowcast holds at 2.6%, underscoring headline volatility; resolution awaits BLS data on April 10.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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