Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged around a March US annual CPI print of 3.4% or higher (49.9% implied probability for ≥3.4%), reflecting sticky shelter inflation and a resilient economy that could pressure upward. February's headline CPI eased to 3.2% year-over-year from January's 3.1%, but core inflation held at 3.8%, with economists forecasting 3.4% for March per Bloomberg medians. Recent catalysts include the hotter-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls (303K jobs added) signaling robust demand, alongside rising oil prices above $85/barrel, diminishing odds for sub-3.3% outcomes (≤36.2% combined). Traders eye tomorrow's April 10 release, where exceeding 3.4% could reinforce Fed rate-cut delays into summer.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥3,4 % 50.0%
3,3 % 25.8%
3,2 % 10%
3,1 % 6.5%
$699,876 Vol.
$699,876 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
2%
3,0 %
2%
3,1 %
6%
3,2 %
10%
3,3 %
26%
≥3,4 %
50%
≥3,4 % 50.0%
3,3 % 25.8%
3,2 % 10%
3,1 % 6.5%
$699,876 Vol.
$699,876 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
2%
3,0 %
2%
3,1 %
6%
3,2 %
10%
3,3 %
26%
≥3,4 %
50%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged around a March US annual CPI print of 3.4% or higher (49.9% implied probability for ≥3.4%), reflecting sticky shelter inflation and a resilient economy that could pressure upward. February's headline CPI eased to 3.2% year-over-year from January's 3.1%, but core inflation held at 3.8%, with economists forecasting 3.4% for March per Bloomberg medians. Recent catalysts include the hotter-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls (303K jobs added) signaling robust demand, alongside rising oil prices above $85/barrel, diminishing odds for sub-3.3% outcomes (≤36.2% combined). Traders eye tomorrow's April 10 release, where exceeding 3.4% could reinforce Fed rate-cut delays into summer.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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