Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among top Wall Street banks for lead underwriter in SpaceX's anticipated blockbuster IPO, potentially valued at $1.75 trillion, with Goldman Sachs holding a slim 34% implied probability edge over Bank of America (30%) and Morgan Stanley (26%). Recent Financial Times reporting confirmed SpaceX engaging these firms—alongside JPMorgan—for senior roles, but a shift toward an unconventional structure eschewing a traditional "lead left" position in favor of alphabetical listing and divided responsibilities has fragmented sentiment. Goldman benefits from its tech IPO prowess, while Morgan Stanley leverages longstanding Elon Musk ties from the Twitter deal; Bank of America's retail focus aligns with Musk's plan for 30% public share allocation. Watch for imminent S-1 filing, expected within weeks, to clarify roles amid rapid preparation including new legal advisors Gibson Dunn and Davis Polk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGoldman Sachs 34%
Bank of America 29.6%
Morgan Stanley 28%
JPMorgan 1.0%
$1,203,107 Vol.
$1,203,107 Vol.

Goldman Sachs
34%

Bank of America
30%

Morgan Stanley
28%

JPMorgan
1%

Barclays
1%

Citigroup
<1%

UBS
<1%

Deutsche Bank
<1%

Wells Fargo
<1%
Goldman Sachs 34%
Bank of America 29.6%
Morgan Stanley 28%
JPMorgan 1.0%
$1,203,107 Vol.
$1,203,107 Vol.

Goldman Sachs
34%

Bank of America
30%

Morgan Stanley
28%

JPMorgan
1%

Barclays
1%

Citigroup
<1%

UBS
<1%

Deutsche Bank
<1%

Wells Fargo
<1%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 25, 2025, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among top Wall Street banks for lead underwriter in SpaceX's anticipated blockbuster IPO, potentially valued at $1.75 trillion, with Goldman Sachs holding a slim 34% implied probability edge over Bank of America (30%) and Morgan Stanley (26%). Recent Financial Times reporting confirmed SpaceX engaging these firms—alongside JPMorgan—for senior roles, but a shift toward an unconventional structure eschewing a traditional "lead left" position in favor of alphabetical listing and divided responsibilities has fragmented sentiment. Goldman benefits from its tech IPO prowess, while Morgan Stanley leverages longstanding Elon Musk ties from the Twitter deal; Bank of America's retail focus aligns with Musk's plan for 30% public share allocation. Watch for imminent S-1 filing, expected within weeks, to clarify roles amid rapid preparation including new legal advisors Gibson Dunn and Davis Polk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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