US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and leadership targets—including the March 1 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—have escalated the conflict into open warfare, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent Israeli strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27 prompted vows of further expansion, while President Trump claims progress in ceasefire talks after Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan and issuance of a counterproposal. No de-escalation signals amid ongoing military actions and Strait of Hormuz tensions; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against risks of broader regional involvement or energy disruptions before any resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
Iran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
$8,111,231 Vol.
May 15, 2026
31 mars
1%
15 avril
17%
7 avril
6%
30 avril
35%
15 mai
45%
30 juin
64%
31 décembre
84%
$8,111,231 Vol.
31 mars
$4,271,238 Vol.
1%
15 avril
$906,360 Vol.
17%
7 avril
$94,881 Vol.
6%
30 avril
$664,673 Vol.
35%
15 mai
$1,167,830 Vol.
45%
30 juin
$806,755 Vol.
64%
31 décembre
$199,951 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and leadership targets—including the March 1 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—have escalated the conflict into open warfare, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent Israeli strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27 prompted vows of further expansion, while President Trump claims progress in ceasefire talks after Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan and issuance of a counterproposal. No de-escalation signals amid ongoing military actions and Strait of Hormuz tensions; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against risks of broader regional involvement or energy disruptions before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$8,111,231Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and leadership targets—including the March 1 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—have escalated the conflict into open warfare, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent Israeli strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27 prompted vows of further expansion, while President Trump claims progress in ceasefire talks after Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan and issuance of a counterproposal. No de-escalation signals amid ongoing military actions and Strait of Hormuz tensions; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against risks of broader regional involvement or energy disruptions before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,111,231Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, industrial sites, and leadership targets—including the March 1 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—have escalated the conflict into open warfare, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf allies. Recent Israeli strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27 prompted vows of further expansion, while President Trump claims progress in ceasefire talks after Iran's rejection of a US 15-point plan and issuance of a counterproposal. No de-escalation signals amid ongoing military actions and Strait of Hormuz tensions; traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against risks of broader regional involvement or energy disruptions before any resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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