Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran since late February, Iranian forces last conducted confirmed kinetic strikes on three commercial vessels on March 11, damaging ships and prompting crew evacuations, as verified by Human Rights Watch. No direct attacks by IRGC or Iranian navy—required for market resolution—have followed, with Iran instead imposing multimillion-dollar tolls for limited merchant transits announced March 27. Recent reports indicate Iran urging Houthi proxies, whose actions do not qualify, to ready Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. escalation continues. Degraded Iranian naval capabilities and diplomatic posturing sustain uncertainty ahead of potential retaliatory moves or invasion signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
L'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
$118,833 Vol.
31 mars 2026
March 31
2%
$118,833 Vol.
March 31
$5,745 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran since late February, Iranian forces last conducted confirmed kinetic strikes on three commercial vessels on March 11, damaging ships and prompting crew evacuations, as verified by Human Rights Watch. No direct attacks by IRGC or Iranian navy—required for market resolution—have followed, with Iran instead imposing multimillion-dollar tolls for limited merchant transits announced March 27. Recent reports indicate Iran urging Houthi proxies, whose actions do not qualify, to ready Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. escalation continues. Degraded Iranian naval capabilities and diplomatic posturing sustain uncertainty ahead of potential retaliatory moves or invasion signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$118,833Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran since late February, Iranian forces last conducted confirmed kinetic strikes on three commercial vessels on March 11, damaging ships and prompting crew evacuations, as verified by Human Rights Watch. No direct attacks by IRGC or Iranian navy—required for market resolution—have followed, with Iran instead imposing multimillion-dollar tolls for limited merchant transits announced March 27. Recent reports indicate Iran urging Houthi proxies, whose actions do not qualify, to ready Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. escalation continues. Degraded Iranian naval capabilities and diplomatic posturing sustain uncertainty ahead of potential retaliatory moves or invasion signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$118,833Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran since late February, Iranian forces last conducted confirmed kinetic strikes on three commercial vessels on March 11, damaging ships and prompting crew evacuations, as verified by Human Rights Watch. No direct attacks by IRGC or Iranian navy—required for market resolution—have followed, with Iran instead imposing multimillion-dollar tolls for limited merchant transits announced March 27. Recent reports indicate Iran urging Houthi proxies, whose actions do not qualify, to ready Red Sea shipping assaults if U.S. escalation continues. Degraded Iranian naval capabilities and diplomatic posturing sustain uncertainty ahead of potential retaliatory moves or invasion signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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