In the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran conducted 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships through March 12, abandoning multiple tankers and spiking Brent crude above $120 per barrel while halting most commercial traffic. No successful strikes have occurred since mid-March minor incidents and near misses, as US-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes damaged over 140 Iranian vessels and degraded missile stockpiles, limiting IRGC Navy capabilities following the March 26 Israeli killing of its commander. Recent IRGC turnaways of allied-nation ships on March 27 and selective passage fees underscore de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pushes like Pakistan's March 29 meeting with Gulf states on reopening the strait. Trader consensus prices low near-term probabilities, with coalition naval deployments and potential further strikes as key risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
L'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
$97,099 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 27
<1%
March 28
2%
March 29
2%
March 30
3%
March 31
3%
$97,099 Vol.
March 27
$21,730 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$7,483 Vol.
2%
March 29
$8,206 Vol.
2%
March 30
$8,496 Vol.
3%
March 31
$1,385 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.In the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran conducted 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships through March 12, abandoning multiple tankers and spiking Brent crude above $120 per barrel while halting most commercial traffic. No successful strikes have occurred since mid-March minor incidents and near misses, as US-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes damaged over 140 Iranian vessels and degraded missile stockpiles, limiting IRGC Navy capabilities following the March 26 Israeli killing of its commander. Recent IRGC turnaways of allied-nation ships on March 27 and selective passage fees underscore de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pushes like Pakistan's March 29 meeting with Gulf states on reopening the strait. Trader consensus prices low near-term probabilities, with coalition naval deployments and potential further strikes as key risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$97,099Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.In the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran conducted 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships through March 12, abandoning multiple tankers and spiking Brent crude above $120 per barrel while halting most commercial traffic. No successful strikes have occurred since mid-March minor incidents and near misses, as US-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes damaged over 140 Iranian vessels and degraded missile stockpiles, limiting IRGC Navy capabilities following the March 26 Israeli killing of its commander. Recent IRGC turnaways of allied-nation ships on March 27 and selective passage fees underscore de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pushes like Pakistan's March 29 meeting with Gulf states on reopening the strait. Trader consensus prices low near-term probabilities, with coalition naval deployments and potential further strikes as key risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$97,099Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran conducted 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships through March 12, abandoning multiple tankers and spiking Brent crude above $120 per barrel while halting most commercial traffic. No successful strikes have occurred since mid-March minor incidents and near misses, as US-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes damaged over 140 Iranian vessels and degraded missile stockpiles, limiting IRGC Navy capabilities following the March 26 Israeli killing of its commander. Recent IRGC turnaways of allied-nation ships on March 27 and selective passage fees underscore de-escalation signals amid diplomatic pushes like Pakistan's March 29 meeting with Gulf states on reopening the strait. Trader consensus prices low near-term probabilities, with coalition naval deployments and potential further strikes as key risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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