Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that began February 28, 2026, Iranian naval capabilities have been severely degraded by repeated airstrikes, including destruction of 92% of major vessels, strikes on northern fleet bases like Bandar Anzali on March 19, and the killing of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw Iranian forces attack over two dozen commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the chokepoint to most traffic since March 1 via threats and kinetic actions. No confirmed direct strikes on commercial shipping by Iranian forces—not proxies like Houthis—have occurred in the past week amid these losses. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for qualifying incidents, defined as claimed kinetic hits or seizures with direct vessel impact per credible reporting consensus, though remaining small boats or missiles pose risks ahead of potential de-escalation talks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
L'Iran cible avec succès l'expédition le... ?
$86,679 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
1%
March 26
1%
March 27
5%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
2%
$86,679 Vol.
March 25
$30,543 Vol.
1%
March 26
$5,945 Vol.
1%
March 27
$19,208 Vol.
5%
March 28
$6,836 Vol.
2%
March 29
$7,581 Vol.
5%
March 30
$7,953 Vol.
7%
March 31
$689 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that began February 28, 2026, Iranian naval capabilities have been severely degraded by repeated airstrikes, including destruction of 92% of major vessels, strikes on northern fleet bases like Bandar Anzali on March 19, and the killing of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw Iranian forces attack over two dozen commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the chokepoint to most traffic since March 1 via threats and kinetic actions. No confirmed direct strikes on commercial shipping by Iranian forces—not proxies like Houthis—have occurred in the past week amid these losses. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for qualifying incidents, defined as claimed kinetic hits or seizures with direct vessel impact per credible reporting consensus, though remaining small boats or missiles pose risks ahead of potential de-escalation talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$86,679Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that began February 28, 2026, Iranian naval capabilities have been severely degraded by repeated airstrikes, including destruction of 92% of major vessels, strikes on northern fleet bases like Bandar Anzali on March 19, and the killing of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw Iranian forces attack over two dozen commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the chokepoint to most traffic since March 1 via threats and kinetic actions. No confirmed direct strikes on commercial shipping by Iranian forces—not proxies like Houthis—have occurred in the past week amid these losses. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for qualifying incidents, defined as claimed kinetic hits or seizures with direct vessel impact per credible reporting consensus, though remaining small boats or missiles pose risks ahead of potential de-escalation talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$86,679Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel war with Iran that began February 28, 2026, Iranian naval capabilities have been severely degraded by repeated airstrikes, including destruction of 92% of major vessels, strikes on northern fleet bases like Bandar Anzali on March 19, and the killing of IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw Iranian forces attack over two dozen commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the chokepoint to most traffic since March 1 via threats and kinetic actions. No confirmed direct strikes on commercial shipping by Iranian forces—not proxies like Houthis—have occurred in the past week amid these losses. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for qualifying incidents, defined as claimed kinetic hits or seizures with direct vessel impact per credible reporting consensus, though remaining small boats or missiles pose risks ahead of potential de-escalation talks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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