Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward a 90% implied probability for the GOP in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, with no Democratic Senate win since 1974. Risch, backed by President Trump's endorsement and over $3.8 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces nominal primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest. A March 16-17 Public Policy Polling survey showed Risch leading independent Todd Achilles 48%-34%, underscoring his edge despite multiple Democratic primary entrants like David Roth. Weak Democratic fundraising and Idaho's conservative electorate solidify the GOP path to victory on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
90%
Démocrate
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
$4,797 Vol.
90%
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward a 90% implied probability for the GOP in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, with no Democratic Senate win since 1974. Risch, backed by President Trump's endorsement and over $3.8 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces nominal primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest. A March 16-17 Public Policy Polling survey showed Risch leading independent Todd Achilles 48%-34%, underscoring his edge despite multiple Democratic primary entrants like David Roth. Weak Democratic fundraising and Idaho's conservative electorate solidify the GOP path to victory on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$4,797Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward a 90% implied probability for the GOP in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, with no Democratic Senate win since 1974. Risch, backed by President Trump's endorsement and over $3.8 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces nominal primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest. A March 16-17 Public Policy Polling survey showed Risch leading independent Todd Achilles 48%-34%, underscoring his edge despite multiple Democratic primary entrants like David Roth. Weak Democratic fundraising and Idaho's conservative electorate solidify the GOP path to victory on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$4,797Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's strong reelection bid drives trader consensus toward a 90% implied probability for the GOP in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others, with no Democratic Senate win since 1974. Risch, backed by President Trump's endorsement and over $3.8 million cash on hand as of late 2025, faces nominal primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest. A March 16-17 Public Policy Polling survey showed Risch leading independent Todd Achilles 48%-34%, underscoring his edge despite multiple Democratic primary entrants like David Roth. Weak Democratic fundraising and Idaho's conservative electorate solidify the GOP path to victory on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes