Trader consensus prices a Republican Senate victory in Idaho at 91.5%, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Donald Trump's 30-plus point 2020 win—and incumbent Jim Risch's entrenched position as he seeks a fourth term against Democratic newcomer Adam Silver. Risch solidified his frontrunner status by defeating primary challenger Scott Grow 52-48% in late May, with subsequent polls maintaining wide leads amid stagnant general election dynamics over the past 30 days and no major scandals or shifts. This safe Republican seat per nonpartisan ratings underscores incumbency advantages and limited Democratic path-to-victory in a low-turnout cycle. Barring late-breaking events like health issues, legal developments, or national wave turnout surges, the November 5 outcome aligns with historical base rates for such races.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
92%
Démocrate
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
$4,686 Vol.
92%
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a Republican Senate victory in Idaho at 91.5%, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Donald Trump's 30-plus point 2020 win—and incumbent Jim Risch's entrenched position as he seeks a fourth term against Democratic newcomer Adam Silver. Risch solidified his frontrunner status by defeating primary challenger Scott Grow 52-48% in late May, with subsequent polls maintaining wide leads amid stagnant general election dynamics over the past 30 days and no major scandals or shifts. This safe Republican seat per nonpartisan ratings underscores incumbency advantages and limited Democratic path-to-victory in a low-turnout cycle. Barring late-breaking events like health issues, legal developments, or national wave turnout surges, the November 5 outcome aligns with historical base rates for such races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$4,686Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a Republican Senate victory in Idaho at 91.5%, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Donald Trump's 30-plus point 2020 win—and incumbent Jim Risch's entrenched position as he seeks a fourth term against Democratic newcomer Adam Silver. Risch solidified his frontrunner status by defeating primary challenger Scott Grow 52-48% in late May, with subsequent polls maintaining wide leads amid stagnant general election dynamics over the past 30 days and no major scandals or shifts. This safe Republican seat per nonpartisan ratings underscores incumbency advantages and limited Democratic path-to-victory in a low-turnout cycle. Barring late-breaking events like health issues, legal developments, or national wave turnout surges, the November 5 outcome aligns with historical base rates for such races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$4,686Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Republican Senate victory in Idaho at 91.5%, reflecting the state's deep Republican lean—evident in Donald Trump's 30-plus point 2020 win—and incumbent Jim Risch's entrenched position as he seeks a fourth term against Democratic newcomer Adam Silver. Risch solidified his frontrunner status by defeating primary challenger Scott Grow 52-48% in late May, with subsequent polls maintaining wide leads amid stagnant general election dynamics over the past 30 days and no major scandals or shifts. This safe Republican seat per nonpartisan ratings underscores incumbency advantages and limited Democratic path-to-victory in a low-turnout cycle. Barring late-breaking events like health issues, legal developments, or national wave turnout surges, the November 5 outcome aligns with historical base rates for such races.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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