Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95%), driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against commercial or naval vessels in the Red Sea or Persian Gulf over the past 30 days. Despite ongoing Houthi proxy attacks backed by Tehran, Iran has avoided escalation following US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, with official statements emphasizing restraint amid diplomatic pressures and sanctions. No recent missile barrages, naval interceptions, or territorial disputes have materialized to shift odds. Challenges could arise from sudden retaliatory strikes, proxy coordination failures prompting direct intervention, or breakdowns in ceasefire talks, though historical patterns show Iranian caution in direct confrontations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHow many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
<5 95%
5–7 3.3%
8–10 1.2%
14–16 1.0%
$50,030 Vol.
$50,030 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
95%
5–7
3%
8–10
1%
11–13
1%
14–16
1%
17–19
<1%
20+
<1%
<5 95%
5–7 3.3%
8–10 1.2%
14–16 1.0%
$50,030 Vol.
$50,030 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$21,964 Vol.
95%
5–7
$5,702 Vol.
3%
8–10
$3,629 Vol.
1%
11–13
$2,879 Vol.
1%
14–16
$5,010 Vol.
1%
17–19
$2,669 Vol.
<1%
20+
$8,177 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95%), driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against commercial or naval vessels in the Red Sea or Persian Gulf over the past 30 days. Despite ongoing Houthi proxy attacks backed by Tehran, Iran has avoided escalation following US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, with official statements emphasizing restraint amid diplomatic pressures and sanctions. No recent missile barrages, naval interceptions, or territorial disputes have materialized to shift odds. Challenges could arise from sudden retaliatory strikes, proxy coordination failures prompting direct intervention, or breakdowns in ceasefire talks, though historical patterns show Iranian caution in direct confrontations.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$50,030Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95%), driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against commercial or naval vessels in the Red Sea or Persian Gulf over the past 30 days. Despite ongoing Houthi proxy attacks backed by Tehran, Iran has avoided escalation following US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, with official statements emphasizing restraint amid diplomatic pressures and sanctions. No recent missile barrages, naval interceptions, or territorial disputes have materialized to shift odds. Challenges could arise from sudden retaliatory strikes, proxy coordination failures prompting direct intervention, or breakdowns in ceasefire talks, though historical patterns show Iranian caution in direct confrontations.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,030Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31 (95%), driven by the absence of any verified direct Iranian military actions against commercial or naval vessels in the Red Sea or Persian Gulf over the past 30 days. Despite ongoing Houthi proxy attacks backed by Tehran, Iran has avoided escalation following US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, with official statements emphasizing restraint amid diplomatic pressures and sanctions. No recent missile barrages, naval interceptions, or territorial disputes have materialized to shift odds. Challenges could arise from sudden retaliatory strikes, proxy coordination failures prompting direct intervention, or breakdowns in ceasefire talks, though historical patterns show Iranian caution in direct confrontations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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