Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4 at 17°C or below, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service observations and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing persistent mild conditions from late March—highs of 19-22°C with isolated rainfall—extending into early April under a cool Mediterranean air mass and high cloud cover probabilities exceeding 80%. This caps daytime heating despite typical spring averages near 22°C, with outcomes like 23°C (22%) and 27°C or higher (20%) reflecting uncertainty in potential clearing. Model runs highlight low-pressure influences suppressing peaks, though rapid shifts remain possible; watch IMS detailed forecasts and new GFS/ECMWF updates in the next 24-48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 4?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 4?
17°C or below 39%
23°C 22%
27°C or higher 20%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
17°C or below
39%
18°C
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
16%
21°C
16%
22°C
19%
23°C
22%
24°C
16%
25°C
14%
26°C
12%
27°C or higher
20%
17°C or below 39%
23°C 22%
27°C or higher 20%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$5 Vol.
16%
19°C
$0 Vol.
16%
20°C
$0 Vol.
16%
21°C
$0 Vol.
16%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
16%
25°C
$0 Vol.
14%
26°C
$20 Vol.
12%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4 at 17°C or below, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service observations and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing persistent mild conditions from late March—highs of 19-22°C with isolated rainfall—extending into early April under a cool Mediterranean air mass and high cloud cover probabilities exceeding 80%. This caps daytime heating despite typical spring averages near 22°C, with outcomes like 23°C (22%) and 27°C or higher (20%) reflecting uncertainty in potential clearing. Model runs highlight low-pressure influences suppressing peaks, though rapid shifts remain possible; watch IMS detailed forecasts and new GFS/ECMWF updates in the next 24-48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$30Date de fin
Apr 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4 at 17°C or below, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service observations and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing persistent mild conditions from late March—highs of 19-22°C with isolated rainfall—extending into early April under a cool Mediterranean air mass and high cloud cover probabilities exceeding 80%. This caps daytime heating despite typical spring averages near 22°C, with outcomes like 23°C (22%) and 27°C or higher (20%) reflecting uncertainty in potential clearing. Model runs highlight low-pressure influences suppressing peaks, though rapid shifts remain possible; watch IMS detailed forecasts and new GFS/ECMWF updates in the next 24-48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30Date de fin
Apr 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 4 at 17°C or below, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service observations and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing persistent mild conditions from late March—highs of 19-22°C with isolated rainfall—extending into early April under a cool Mediterranean air mass and high cloud cover probabilities exceeding 80%. This caps daytime heating despite typical spring averages near 22°C, with outcomes like 23°C (22%) and 27°C or higher (20%) reflecting uncertainty in potential clearing. Model runs highlight low-pressure influences suppressing peaks, though rapid shifts remain possible; watch IMS detailed forecasts and new GFS/ECMWF updates in the next 24-48 hours for refinements ahead of resolution based on official station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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