Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shenzhen high of 29°C (75%) for March 26, reflecting the latest forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project peak daytime temperatures around that mark under a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge. This system has delivered clear skies and light southerly winds over the past week, pushing recent highs to 27-28°C—above the late-March climatological average of 24°C—and enabling efficient solar heating on urban surfaces. Ensemble model runs show tight agreement with minimal spread (±1°C), pricing 28°C at 21% for potential evening cloud intrusion and 30°C+ at just 2% due to low humidity and no convective triggers. Updated guidance expected tomorrow could refine these market-implied odds as the event nears resolution based on official station measurements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
29°C 81.6%
30°C or higher 3.1%
28°C 1.0%
$186,359 Vol.
$186,359 Vol.
28°C
1%
29°C
82%
30°C or higher
3%
29°C 81.6%
30°C or higher 3.1%
28°C 1.0%
$186,359 Vol.
$186,359 Vol.
28°C
1%
29°C
82%
30°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shenzhen high of 29°C (75%) for March 26, reflecting the latest forecast consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project peak daytime temperatures around that mark under a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge. This system has delivered clear skies and light southerly winds over the past week, pushing recent highs to 27-28°C—above the late-March climatological average of 24°C—and enabling efficient solar heating on urban surfaces. Ensemble model runs show tight agreement with minimal spread (±1°C), pricing 28°C at 21% for potential evening cloud intrusion and 30°C+ at just 2% due to low humidity and no convective triggers. Updated guidance expected tomorrow could refine these market-implied odds as the event nears resolution based on official station measurements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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