Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 45.5% implied probability to a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F on March 26, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble runs showing peak daytime heat under a building subtropical high-pressure ridge over Florida. This setup promotes sunny skies, light winds below 10 mph, and temperatures 3-5°F above the late-March climatological average of 79°F, with sea surface temperatures in the mid-70s°F fueling modest warm-air advection. Yesterday's high of 81°F and minimal overnight cooling align with this trajectory, though model spread introduces uncertainty—some runs dip to 80-81°F (29.5% odds) amid potential marine layer effects. New 12z model updates expected today could refine these probabilities ahead of the evening peak.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Miami le 26 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Miami le 26 mars ?
82-83 °F 46%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 2.9%
$39,920 Vol.
$39,920 Vol.
71°F ou moins
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
28%
82-83 °F
46%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F ou plus
<1%
82-83 °F 46%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 2.9%
$39,920 Vol.
$39,920 Vol.
71°F ou moins
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
28%
82-83 °F
46%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 45.5% implied probability to a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F on March 26, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble runs showing peak daytime heat under a building subtropical high-pressure ridge over Florida. This setup promotes sunny skies, light winds below 10 mph, and temperatures 3-5°F above the late-March climatological average of 79°F, with sea surface temperatures in the mid-70s°F fueling modest warm-air advection. Yesterday's high of 81°F and minimal overnight cooling align with this trajectory, though model spread introduces uncertainty—some runs dip to 80-81°F (29.5% odds) amid potential marine layer effects. New 12z model updates expected today could refine these probabilities ahead of the evening peak.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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