Recent National Weather Service forecasts peg Chicago's high temperature on March 27 at around 41°F, driving closely matched trader consensus with 40-41°F (28.5% implied probability) edging 42-43°F (25.5%) amid model ensemble spreads of 2-3°F. This reflects persistent cool northerly winds from a Midwest cold front that passed Tuesday, capping daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, per GFS and ECMWF consensus. Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing depth—deeper mixing favors 42-43°F via enhanced solar insolation—versus shallower profiles from overnight cloud persistence pushing toward 40-41°F. Historical late-March norms (average 43°F) align with this range, but new 12z model runs today could sharpen resolution as the event nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
40-41°F 29%
42-43°F 25%
44-45°F 16.8%
46-47°F 9%
$43,087 Vol.
$43,087 Vol.
33°F or below
1%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
29%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
17%
46-47°F
9%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
1%
52°F or higher
1%
40-41°F 29%
42-43°F 25%
44-45°F 16.8%
46-47°F 9%
$43,087 Vol.
$43,087 Vol.
33°F or below
1%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
29%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
17%
46-47°F
9%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
1%
52°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts peg Chicago's high temperature on March 27 at around 41°F, driving closely matched trader consensus with 40-41°F (28.5% implied probability) edging 42-43°F (25.5%) amid model ensemble spreads of 2-3°F. This reflects persistent cool northerly winds from a Midwest cold front that passed Tuesday, capping daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, per GFS and ECMWF consensus. Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing depth—deeper mixing favors 42-43°F via enhanced solar insolation—versus shallower profiles from overnight cloud persistence pushing toward 40-41°F. Historical late-March norms (average 43°F) align with this range, but new 12z model runs today could sharpen resolution as the event nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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