Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Ankara's highest temperature on March 26, with models implying a peak around 12–13°C as the most probable range amid variable spring conditions. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show a clustered mean high of 12.2°C, driven by persistent northerly airflow bringing cool continental air masses over central Turkey, suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms of 13–15°C. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—partial clearing could nudge toward 13°C—versus increased low-level moisture favoring 11–12°C, with 1–2°C model spread highlighting sensitivity to upper-air ridging. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and daily model refreshes expected within 48 hours will likely sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
12°C 36%
13°C 34%
11°C 18%
14°C 8%
$53,044 Vol.
$53,044 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
14%
12°C
36%
13°C
34%
14°C
8%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
12°C 36%
13°C 34%
11°C 18%
14°C 8%
$53,044 Vol.
$53,044 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
14%
12°C
36%
13°C
34%
14°C
8%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Ankara's highest temperature on March 26, with models implying a peak around 12–13°C as the most probable range amid variable spring conditions. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show a clustered mean high of 12.2°C, driven by persistent northerly airflow bringing cool continental air masses over central Turkey, suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms of 13–15°C. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—partial clearing could nudge toward 13°C—versus increased low-level moisture favoring 11–12°C, with 1–2°C model spread highlighting sensitivity to upper-air ridging. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and daily model refreshes expected within 48 hours will likely sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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