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Élections·Élection Américaine

Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï

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Élections·Élection Américaine

Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï

NOUVEAU
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Market icon

Démocrate

$1,735 Vol.

95%

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Républicain

$2,228 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Democratic victory at 94.5% for Hawaii's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by the state's unbroken Democratic hold on the governorship since statehood in 1959 and incumbent Governor Josh Green's solid 56% approval rating, bolstered by his handling of the 2023 Maui wildfires. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with no candidates yet filing by the June 2 deadline and the August 8 primary approaching; forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Solid Democratic amid weak Republican recruitment. Upsets could stem from a Democratic primary challenge to Green, a high-profile GOP contender, or scandals, though Hawaii's lopsided partisan registration favors the incumbent's path to renomination and general election win.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$3,963
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Democratic victory at 94.5% for Hawaii's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by the state's unbroken Democratic hold on the governorship since statehood in 1959 and incumbent Governor Josh Green's solid 56% approval rating, bolstered by his handling of the 2023 Maui wildfires. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with no candidates yet filing by the June 2 deadline and the August 8 primary approaching; forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Solid Democratic amid weak Republican recruitment. Upsets could stem from a Democratic primary challenge to Green, a high-profile GOP contender, or scandals, though Hawaii's lopsided partisan registration favors the incumbent's path to renomination and general election win.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$3,963
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Démocrate » à 95%, suivi de « Républicain » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 95¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Oct 13, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï » est « Démocrate » à 95%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 95% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Républicain » à 5%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection du gouverneur d'Hawaï » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.