Trader consensus on Polymarket prices gold (GC) futures above $2,600 by March 31 at around 45% implied probability, primarily pressured lower by resilient U.S. economic data curbing aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. Spot gold trades near $2,620 amid a stronger dollar index (DXY at 104.5) and rising 10-year Treasury yields above 4.3%, classic headwinds for the non-yielding asset. Central bank buying from China and India provides support, while escalating Middle East tensions bolster safe-haven demand. Key watch: March 12 CPI release and FOMC March 19-20 dot plot, with traders eyeing sub-3% core CPI for bullish reversal; breach below $2,550 GC support risks further downside to $2,500.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOr (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin mars ?
Or (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin mars ?
$97,649 Vol.
7 000 $
<1%
6 500 $
<1%
6 000 $
1%
5 800 $
1%
5 600 $
1%
5 400 $
1%
5 200 $
2%
5 000 $
5%
4 800 $
28%
4 600 $
50%
4 400 $
65%
4 000 $
97%
$97,649 Vol.
7 000 $
<1%
6 500 $
<1%
6 000 $
1%
5 800 $
1%
5 600 $
1%
5 400 $
1%
5 200 $
2%
5 000 $
5%
4 800 $
28%
4 600 $
50%
4 400 $
65%
4 000 $
97%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices gold (GC) futures above $2,600 by March 31 at around 45% implied probability, primarily pressured lower by resilient U.S. economic data curbing aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. Spot gold trades near $2,620 amid a stronger dollar index (DXY at 104.5) and rising 10-year Treasury yields above 4.3%, classic headwinds for the non-yielding asset. Central bank buying from China and India provides support, while escalating Middle East tensions bolster safe-haven demand. Key watch: March 12 CPI release and FOMC March 19-20 dot plot, with traders eyeing sub-3% core CPI for bullish reversal; breach below $2,550 GC support risks further downside to $2,500.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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