Trader sentiment on Polymarket's June gold (GC) settlement market clusters tightly around the $4,200-$4,600 (17.8% implied probability) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.5%) bins, signaling competitive dynamics driven by expectations of sustained Fed rate cuts weakening the USD and boosting non-yielding gold as an inflation hedge. Recent CPI data at 2.4% YoY (October) and core PCE at 2.6% reinforce disinflation, with Fed funds futures pricing a 90% chance of a December 25bps cut, potentially extending the rally from current spot levels near $2,720. Central bank purchases hit 1,080 tonnes YTD, per World Gold Council, while Middle East tensions add safe-haven demand. Differentiators include November 13 CPI release and December FOMC: softer data favors upper bins, while election-driven USD strength risks capping at lower ranges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÀ quoi l'or (GC) se règlera-t-il en juin ?
À quoi l'or (GC) se règlera-t-il en juin ?
4 200 $-4 600 $ 19.6%
4 600 $-5 000 $ 19%
3 800 $ - 4 200 $ 14.8%
5 000 $ - 5 400 $ 14.6%
$368,546 Vol.
$368,546 Vol.
<3 800 $
9%
3 800 $ - 4 200 $
15%
4 200 $-4 600 $
20%
4 600 $-5 000 $
19%
5 000 $ - 5 400 $
15%
5 400 $ - 5 800 $
10%
5 800 $-6 200 $
9%
>6 200 $
8%
4 200 $-4 600 $ 19.6%
4 600 $-5 000 $ 19%
3 800 $ - 4 200 $ 14.8%
5 000 $ - 5 400 $ 14.6%
$368,546 Vol.
$368,546 Vol.
<3 800 $
9%
3 800 $ - 4 200 $
15%
4 200 $-4 600 $
20%
4 600 $-5 000 $
19%
5 000 $ - 5 400 $
15%
5 400 $ - 5 800 $
10%
5 800 $-6 200 $
9%
>6 200 $
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket's June gold (GC) settlement market clusters tightly around the $4,200-$4,600 (17.8% implied probability) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.5%) bins, signaling competitive dynamics driven by expectations of sustained Fed rate cuts weakening the USD and boosting non-yielding gold as an inflation hedge. Recent CPI data at 2.4% YoY (October) and core PCE at 2.6% reinforce disinflation, with Fed funds futures pricing a 90% chance of a December 25bps cut, potentially extending the rally from current spot levels near $2,720. Central bank purchases hit 1,080 tonnes YTD, per World Gold Council, while Middle East tensions add safe-haven demand. Differentiators include November 13 CPI release and December FOMC: softer data favors upper bins, while election-driven USD strength risks capping at lower ranges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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