Expectations of a steady Fed funds rate at the June 11-12 FOMC meeting, with markets implying just 25% odds of a cut per CME FedWatch, anchor trader sentiment on Polymarket's Gold (GC) futures end-of-June market, keeping implied probabilities balanced around key strike levels near $2,400. Current GC front-month trades at $2,335/oz, up 1.2% weekly amid softening 10-year Treasury real yields to 2.1% and DXY dollar index slipping below 104.5, supportive tailwinds from persistent central bank purchases (e.g., China's May imports +15% YoY). Yet, hawkish CPI data due June 12 risks capping upside if core inflation exceeds 3.4% forecast, with historical June seasonality showing 60% median gain but volatility spikes pre-Fed. Traders eye $2,420 resistance for breakout confirmation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOr (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
Or (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
$21,762 Vol.
8 000 $
2%
7 000 $
3%
6 500 $
5%
6 200 $
9%
6 000 $
11%
5 800 $
19%
5 600 $
23%
5 400 $
28%
5 200 $
40%
5 000 $
38%
4 800 $
47%
4 600 $
51%
$21,762 Vol.
8 000 $
2%
7 000 $
3%
6 500 $
5%
6 200 $
9%
6 000 $
11%
5 800 $
19%
5 600 $
23%
5 400 $
28%
5 200 $
40%
5 000 $
38%
4 800 $
47%
4 600 $
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Expectations of a steady Fed funds rate at the June 11-12 FOMC meeting, with markets implying just 25% odds of a cut per CME FedWatch, anchor trader sentiment on Polymarket's Gold (GC) futures end-of-June market, keeping implied probabilities balanced around key strike levels near $2,400. Current GC front-month trades at $2,335/oz, up 1.2% weekly amid softening 10-year Treasury real yields to 2.1% and DXY dollar index slipping below 104.5, supportive tailwinds from persistent central bank purchases (e.g., China's May imports +15% YoY). Yet, hawkish CPI data due June 12 risks capping upside if core inflation exceeds 3.4% forecast, with historical June seasonality showing 60% median gain but volatility spikes pre-Fed. Traders eye $2,420 resistance for breakout confirmation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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