Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for Comex gold futures (GC) settling above $2,350 by June 28 close, driven primarily by elevated Fed funds futures implying three 25bp rate cuts by year-end amid cooling inflation and softening labor data. Spot gold trades near $2,325/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index at 104.5 and sustained central bank buying from China and India, though ETF outflows signal short-term caution. Key risks include hotter-than-expected June CPI (June 12) or hawkish FOMC rhetoric (June 11-12), potentially capping upside; watch $2,400 resistance for breakout confirmation amid $15B in managed money longs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOr (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
Or (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
$24,071 Vol.
8 000 $
2%
7 000 $
13%
6 500 $
5%
6 200 $
9%
6 000 $
10%
5 800 $
22%
5 600 $
26%
5 400 $
28%
5 200 $
40%
5 000 $
38%
4 800 $
46%
4 600 $
51%
$24,071 Vol.
8 000 $
2%
7 000 $
13%
6 500 $
5%
6 200 $
9%
6 000 $
10%
5 800 $
22%
5 600 $
26%
5 400 $
28%
5 200 $
40%
5 000 $
38%
4 800 $
46%
4 600 $
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for Comex gold futures (GC) settling above $2,350 by June 28 close, driven primarily by elevated Fed funds futures implying three 25bp rate cuts by year-end amid cooling inflation and softening labor data. Spot gold trades near $2,325/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index at 104.5 and sustained central bank buying from China and India, though ETF outflows signal short-term caution. Key risks include hotter-than-expected June CPI (June 12) or hawkish FOMC rhetoric (June 11-12), potentially capping upside; watch $2,400 resistance for breakout confirmation amid $15B in managed money longs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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