Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 65% implied probability for COMEX gold futures (GC) closing above $2,400/oz by June 30, driven primarily by persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling U.S. inflation data, with May CPI at 3.3% year-over-year supporting a 25bps cut odds at 70% via CME FedWatch. A weakening U.S. dollar—DXY near 104—bolsters gold's appeal as a non-yielding safe haven, amplified by central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually and Middle East geopolitical risks. However, upside risks include stronger-than-expected NFP on June 7 or hawkish FOMC June 12 rhetoric, potentially capping gains; traders eye $2,450 resistance amid $2.3 trillion ETF holdings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOr (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
Or (GC) au-dessus de ___ fin juin ?
$24,071 Vol.
8 000 $
2%
7 000 $
12%
6 500 $
5%
6 200 $
9%
6 000 $
10%
5 800 $
22%
5 600 $
26%
5 400 $
28%
5 200 $
40%
5 000 $
38%
4 800 $
46%
4 600 $
51%
$24,071 Vol.
8 000 $
2%
7 000 $
12%
6 500 $
5%
6 200 $
9%
6 000 $
10%
5 800 $
22%
5 600 $
26%
5 400 $
28%
5 200 $
40%
5 000 $
38%
4 800 $
46%
4 600 $
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 65% implied probability for COMEX gold futures (GC) closing above $2,400/oz by June 30, driven primarily by persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling U.S. inflation data, with May CPI at 3.3% year-over-year supporting a 25bps cut odds at 70% via CME FedWatch. A weakening U.S. dollar—DXY near 104—bolsters gold's appeal as a non-yielding safe haven, amplified by central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually and Middle East geopolitical risks. However, upside risks include stronger-than-expected NFP on June 7 or hawkish FOMC June 12 rhetoric, potentially capping gains; traders eye $2,450 resistance amid $2.3 trillion ETF holdings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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