Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.4% implied probability on no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization progress despite FHFA Director Pulte's February affirmation that the GSE is primed for privatization pending Treasury and presidential approval. Recent surges in OTC shares—Freddie Mac up 47% on March 30—stemmed from Bill Ackman's "stupidly cheap" endorsement and Pershing Square's 10% stake, yet famed investor Michael Burry pegs IPOs to 2027 at earliest amid conservatorship hurdles, $370 billion senior preferred Treasury claims, and congressional inaction since 2008. Sparse odds across market-cap bins (<150B to 300B+) underscore execution risks, with Q4 2026 as Ackman's optimistic baseline for a potential $30 billion raise to hit 2.5% capital rules. Key catalysts: Trump administration signals and FHFA updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 88.5%
150–200 milliards 4.7%
300Md+ 1.6%
<150 Md$ 1.6%
$189,029 Vol.
$189,029 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<150 Md$
2%
150–200 milliards
5%
200–250 Md$
1%
250–300 Mds $
1%
300Md+
2%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
88%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 88.5%
150–200 milliards 4.7%
300Md+ 1.6%
<150 Md$ 1.6%
$189,029 Vol.
$189,029 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<150 Md$
$79,295 Vol.
2%
150–200 milliards
$30,205 Vol.
5%
200–250 Md$
$19,109 Vol.
1%
250–300 Mds $
$5,002 Vol.
1%
300Md+
$10,076 Vol.
2%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
$45,342 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.4% implied probability on no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization progress despite FHFA Director Pulte's February affirmation that the GSE is primed for privatization pending Treasury and presidential approval. Recent surges in OTC shares—Freddie Mac up 47% on March 30—stemmed from Bill Ackman's "stupidly cheap" endorsement and Pershing Square's 10% stake, yet famed investor Michael Burry pegs IPOs to 2027 at earliest amid conservatorship hurdles, $370 billion senior preferred Treasury claims, and congressional inaction since 2008. Sparse odds across market-cap bins (<150B to 300B+) underscore execution risks, with Q4 2026 as Ackman's optimistic baseline for a potential $30 billion raise to hit 2.5% capital rules. Key catalysts: Trump administration signals and FHFA updates.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$189,029Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.4% implied probability on no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization progress despite FHFA Director Pulte's February affirmation that the GSE is primed for privatization pending Treasury and presidential approval. Recent surges in OTC shares—Freddie Mac up 47% on March 30—stemmed from Bill Ackman's "stupidly cheap" endorsement and Pershing Square's 10% stake, yet famed investor Michael Burry pegs IPOs to 2027 at earliest amid conservatorship hurdles, $370 billion senior preferred Treasury claims, and congressional inaction since 2008. Sparse odds across market-cap bins (<150B to 300B+) underscore execution risks, with Q4 2026 as Ackman's optimistic baseline for a potential $30 billion raise to hit 2.5% capital rules. Key catalysts: Trump administration signals and FHFA updates.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$189,029Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.4% implied probability on no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization progress despite FHFA Director Pulte's February affirmation that the GSE is primed for privatization pending Treasury and presidential approval. Recent surges in OTC shares—Freddie Mac up 47% on March 30—stemmed from Bill Ackman's "stupidly cheap" endorsement and Pershing Square's 10% stake, yet famed investor Michael Burry pegs IPOs to 2027 at earliest amid conservatorship hurdles, $370 billion senior preferred Treasury claims, and congressional inaction since 2008. Sparse odds across market-cap bins (<150B to 300B+) underscore execution risks, with Q4 2026 as Ackman's optimistic baseline for a potential $30 billion raise to hit 2.5% capital rules. Key catalysts: Trump administration signals and FHFA updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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