Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—and incumbency advantage in the August 18 closed primary, bolstered by 45% unaided support in a February-March poll of 491 likely Democratic voters showing 44% undecided. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, holds 37% as his DSA's first 2026 federal endorsement and MPower Change backing energize progressive voters critical of Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and Israel aid votes, with polls indicating Larkin surging to 49-51% post-biographies amid district preferences for reduced military aid. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of ballot access deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$14,019 Vol.
$14,019 Vol.
18 août 2026
Jared Moskowitz
57%
Oliver Adams Larkin
37%
$14,019 Vol.
$14,019 Vol.
18 août 2026
Jared Moskowitz
$5,000 Vol.
57%
Oliver Adams Larkin
$9,019 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—and incumbency advantage in the August 18 closed primary, bolstered by 45% unaided support in a February-March poll of 491 likely Democratic voters showing 44% undecided. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, holds 37% as his DSA's first 2026 federal endorsement and MPower Change backing energize progressive voters critical of Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and Israel aid votes, with polls indicating Larkin surging to 49-51% post-biographies amid district preferences for reduced military aid. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of ballot access deadlines.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$14,019Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—and incumbency advantage in the August 18 closed primary, bolstered by 45% unaided support in a February-March poll of 491 likely Democratic voters showing 44% undecided. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, holds 37% as his DSA's first 2026 federal endorsement and MPower Change backing energize progressive voters critical of Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and Israel aid votes, with polls indicating Larkin surging to 49-51% post-biographies amid district preferences for reduced military aid. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of ballot access deadlines.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,019Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz leads trader consensus at 57% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary due to his strong fundraising—$1.7 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—and incumbency advantage in the August 18 closed primary, bolstered by 45% unaided support in a February-March poll of 491 likely Democratic voters showing 44% undecided. Challenger Oliver Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, holds 37% as his DSA's first 2026 federal endorsement and MPower Change backing energize progressive voters critical of Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and Israel aid votes, with polls indicating Larkin surging to 49-51% post-biographies amid district preferences for reduced military aid. High undecideds signal volatility ahead of ballot access deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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