Illinois Democratic House incumbents breezed through their March 17, 2026, primaries in safely blue districts, securing victories with margins often exceeding 60% against limited challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" losses. Powerful incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and strong party machinery in Chicago-area strongholds like the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th districts deterred serious threats, consistent with historical primary success rates above 95% for House incumbents. While official canvassing and certification remain pending, no close races or irregularities have surfaced. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected recounts, legal challenges, or late disqualifications, though such disruptions are exceedingly rare in uncontested outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
17 mars 2026
$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
17 mars 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Illinois Democratic House incumbents breezed through their March 17, 2026, primaries in safely blue districts, securing victories with margins often exceeding 60% against limited challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" losses. Powerful incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and strong party machinery in Chicago-area strongholds like the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th districts deterred serious threats, consistent with historical primary success rates above 95% for House incumbents. While official canvassing and certification remain pending, no close races or irregularities have surfaced. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected recounts, legal challenges, or late disqualifications, though such disruptions are exceedingly rare in uncontested outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$413Date de fin
17 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Illinois Democratic House incumbents breezed through their March 17, 2026, primaries in safely blue districts, securing victories with margins often exceeding 60% against limited challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" losses. Powerful incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and strong party machinery in Chicago-area strongholds like the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th districts deterred serious threats, consistent with historical primary success rates above 95% for House incumbents. While official canvassing and certification remain pending, no close races or irregularities have surfaced. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected recounts, legal challenges, or late disqualifications, though such disruptions are exceedingly rare in uncontested outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$413Date de fin
17 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Illinois Democratic House incumbents breezed through their March 17, 2026, primaries in safely blue districts, securing victories with margins often exceeding 60% against limited challengers, reinforcing trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" losses. Powerful incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and strong party machinery in Chicago-area strongholds like the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th districts deterred serious threats, consistent with historical primary success rates above 95% for House incumbents. While official canvassing and certification remain pending, no close races or irregularities have surfaced. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected recounts, legal challenges, or late disqualifications, though such disruptions are exceedingly rare in uncontested outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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