Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House races, all incumbents seeking re-election—Jonathan Jackson (IL-1), Delia Ramirez (IL-3), Mike Quigley (IL-5), Sean Casten (IL-6), Brad Schneider (IL-10), Bill Foster (IL-11), Nikki Budzinski (IL-13), Lauren Underwood (IL-14), and Eric Sorensen (IL-17)—won decisively, most unopposed or with over 65% of the vote. Trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" reflects this incumbency advantage in safe blue districts and lack of viable challengers, despite retirements like Danny Davis (IL-7) and Jan Schakowsky (IL-9) creating contested open-seat primaries. Official certification remains the final step, though legal challenges or recounts are improbable given wide margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
17 mars 2026
$413 Vol.
$413 Vol.
17 mars 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House races, all incumbents seeking re-election—Jonathan Jackson (IL-1), Delia Ramirez (IL-3), Mike Quigley (IL-5), Sean Casten (IL-6), Brad Schneider (IL-10), Bill Foster (IL-11), Nikki Budzinski (IL-13), Lauren Underwood (IL-14), and Eric Sorensen (IL-17)—won decisively, most unopposed or with over 65% of the vote. Trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" reflects this incumbency advantage in safe blue districts and lack of viable challengers, despite retirements like Danny Davis (IL-7) and Jan Schakowsky (IL-9) creating contested open-seat primaries. Official certification remains the final step, though legal challenges or recounts are improbable given wide margins.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$413Date de fin
17 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House races, all incumbents seeking re-election—Jonathan Jackson (IL-1), Delia Ramirez (IL-3), Mike Quigley (IL-5), Sean Casten (IL-6), Brad Schneider (IL-10), Bill Foster (IL-11), Nikki Budzinski (IL-13), Lauren Underwood (IL-14), and Eric Sorensen (IL-17)—won decisively, most unopposed or with over 65% of the vote. Trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" reflects this incumbency advantage in safe blue districts and lack of viable challengers, despite retirements like Danny Davis (IL-7) and Jan Schakowsky (IL-9) creating contested open-seat primaries. Official certification remains the final step, though legal challenges or recounts are improbable given wide margins.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$413Date de fin
17 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House races, all incumbents seeking re-election—Jonathan Jackson (IL-1), Delia Ramirez (IL-3), Mike Quigley (IL-5), Sean Casten (IL-6), Brad Schneider (IL-10), Bill Foster (IL-11), Nikki Budzinski (IL-13), Lauren Underwood (IL-14), and Eric Sorensen (IL-17)—won decisively, most unopposed or with over 65% of the vote. Trader consensus at 97.8% for "No" reflects this incumbency advantage in safe blue districts and lack of viable challengers, despite retirements like Danny Davis (IL-7) and Jan Schakowsky (IL-9) creating contested open-seat primaries. Official certification remains the final step, though legal challenges or recounts are improbable given wide margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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