Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Canada's 2026 annual inflation firmly above the Bank of Canada's 2% target, with 44.2% implied probability for 3.0-3.4% narrowly edging 38.5% odds for 3.5-3.9%, reflecting sticky core measures amid easing headline CPI. Recent November data showed headline inflation dipping to 1.9% year-over-year but core gauges hovering at 2.6-2.9%, driven by shelter costs up 5.1% and wage growth near 4%. BoC's ongoing rate cuts to 3.75% aim for 2% by mid-2025, yet traders bet on persistent demand from immigration and commodity volatility—oil above $70/barrel bolsters CAD but risks tariff-induced import pressures post-U.S. election. Key differentiator: Oil stabilization below $65 could tilt toward lower bins, while shelter persistence favors upper ranges; watch January CPI and January 29 BoC decision for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle au Canada 2026
Inflation annuelle au Canada 2026
3,0-3,4 % 44.2%
3,5-3,9 % 38.5%
2,5–2,9 % 33%
2,0–2,4 % 16%
<1,0 %
14%
1,0–1,4 %
7%
1,5–1,9 %
13%
2,0–2,4 %
23%
2,5–2,9 %
21%
3,0-3,4 %
44%
3,5-3,9 %
38%
4,0 % +
13%
3,0-3,4 % 44.2%
3,5-3,9 % 38.5%
2,5–2,9 % 33%
2,0–2,4 % 16%
<1,0 %
14%
1,0–1,4 %
7%
1,5–1,9 %
13%
2,0–2,4 %
23%
2,5–2,9 %
21%
3,0-3,4 %
44%
3,5-3,9 %
38%
4,0 % +
13%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Canada's 2026 annual inflation firmly above the Bank of Canada's 2% target, with 44.2% implied probability for 3.0-3.4% narrowly edging 38.5% odds for 3.5-3.9%, reflecting sticky core measures amid easing headline CPI. Recent November data showed headline inflation dipping to 1.9% year-over-year but core gauges hovering at 2.6-2.9%, driven by shelter costs up 5.1% and wage growth near 4%. BoC's ongoing rate cuts to 3.75% aim for 2% by mid-2025, yet traders bet on persistent demand from immigration and commodity volatility—oil above $70/barrel bolsters CAD but risks tariff-induced import pressures post-U.S. election. Key differentiator: Oil stabilization below $65 could tilt toward lower bins, while shelter persistence favors upper ranges; watch January CPI and January 29 BoC decision for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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