Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 99.3% for a "Yes" outcome on AWS service disruption by March 31, driven primarily by an ongoing widespread outage affecting key services like EC2, S3, and RDS across US-East-1 and other regions, as confirmed in AWS's official status page updates and reported by tech outlets like TechCrunch and The Verge. This marks the third major incident in 2024, amplifying concerns over AWS's reliability amid surging AI workloads straining infrastructure. High confidence stems from the disruption's scale—impacting millions of users—and historical patterns where resolutions take days. Realistic counters include an unusually swift fix before March 31 or reclassification as minor if uptime exceeds 99.99%, though regulatory scrutiny from FTC probes adds tail risk for prolonged issues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 99.3% for a "Yes" outcome on AWS service disruption by March 31, driven primarily by an ongoing widespread outage affecting key services like EC2, S3, and RDS across US-East-1 and other regions, as confirmed in AWS's official status page updates and reported by tech outlets like TechCrunch and The Verge. This marks the third major incident in 2024, amplifying concerns over AWS's reliability amid surging AI workloads straining infrastructure. High confidence stems from the disruption's scale—impacting millions of users—and historical patterns where resolutions take days. Realistic counters include an unusually swift fix before March 31 or reclassification as minor if uptime exceeds 99.99%, though regulatory scrutiny from FTC probes adds tail risk for prolonged issues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 99.3% for a "Yes" outcome on AWS service disruption by March 31, driven primarily by an ongoing widespread outage affecting key services like EC2, S3, and RDS across US-East-1 and other regions, as confirmed in AWS's official status page updates and reported by tech outlets like TechCrunch and The Verge. This marks the third major incident in 2024, amplifying concerns over AWS's reliability amid surging AI workloads straining infrastructure. High confidence stems from the disruption's scale—impacting millions of users—and historical patterns where resolutions take days. Realistic counters include an unusually swift fix before March 31 or reclassification as minor if uptime exceeds 99.99%, though regulatory scrutiny from FTC probes adds tail risk for prolonged issues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 99.3% for a "Yes" outcome on AWS service disruption by March 31, driven primarily by an ongoing widespread outage affecting key services like EC2, S3, and RDS across US-East-1 and other regions, as confirmed in AWS's official status page updates and reported by tech outlets like TechCrunch and The Verge. This marks the third major incident in 2024, amplifying concerns over AWS's reliability amid surging AI workloads straining infrastructure. High confidence stems from the disruption's scale—impacting millions of users—and historical patterns where resolutions take days. Realistic counters include an unusually swift fix before March 31 or reclassification as minor if uptime exceeds 99.99%, though regulatory scrutiny from FTC probes adds tail risk for prolonged issues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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