Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with 29% implied probability on 25-29.9% edging out 27% for 20-24.9%, reflecting economist forecasts clustering around 20-26% year-end amid President Milei's fiscal austerity. February's 2.9% monthly CPI—stable from January but above the 2.7% consensus—lifted the annual rate to 33.1%, tempering optimism as persistent 3% monthly readings signal incomplete disinflation from 2025's 31%. Upside risks from global oil spikes tied to Iran tensions could add 0.3 percentage points to March, while sustained monetary tightening and real peso stability favor sub-30% outcomes. Key swing factor: March CPI data, due mid-April, testing if downward trajectory resumes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour25-29,9 % 29%
30,0-34,9 % 20.7%
20-24,9 % 16%
35–39,9 % 10.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
10 janv. 2027
<20 %
6%
20-24,9 %
27%
25-29,9 %
29%
30,0-34,9 %
21%
35–39,9 %
11%
40-44,9 %
10%
45 %+
5%
25-29,9 % 29%
30,0-34,9 % 20.7%
20-24,9 % 16%
35–39,9 % 10.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
10 janv. 2027
<20 %
$0 Vol.
6%
20-24,9 %
$416 Vol.
27%
25-29,9 %
$0 Vol.
29%
30,0-34,9 %
$367 Vol.
21%
35–39,9 %
$409 Vol.
11%
40-44,9 %
$572 Vol.
10%
45 %+
$878 Vol.
5%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with 29% implied probability on 25-29.9% edging out 27% for 20-24.9%, reflecting economist forecasts clustering around 20-26% year-end amid President Milei's fiscal austerity. February's 2.9% monthly CPI—stable from January but above the 2.7% consensus—lifted the annual rate to 33.1%, tempering optimism as persistent 3% monthly readings signal incomplete disinflation from 2025's 31%. Upside risks from global oil spikes tied to Iran tensions could add 0.3 percentage points to March, while sustained monetary tightening and real peso stability favor sub-30% outcomes. Key swing factor: March CPI data, due mid-April, testing if downward trajectory resumes.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volume
$2,642Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with 29% implied probability on 25-29.9% edging out 27% for 20-24.9%, reflecting economist forecasts clustering around 20-26% year-end amid President Milei's fiscal austerity. February's 2.9% monthly CPI—stable from January but above the 2.7% consensus—lifted the annual rate to 33.1%, tempering optimism as persistent 3% monthly readings signal incomplete disinflation from 2025's 31%. Upside risks from global oil spikes tied to Iran tensions could add 0.3 percentage points to March, while sustained monetary tightening and real peso stability favor sub-30% outcomes. Key swing factor: March CPI data, due mid-April, testing if downward trajectory resumes.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,642Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for Argentina's 2026 annual inflation, with 29% implied probability on 25-29.9% edging out 27% for 20-24.9%, reflecting economist forecasts clustering around 20-26% year-end amid President Milei's fiscal austerity. February's 2.9% monthly CPI—stable from January but above the 2.7% consensus—lifted the annual rate to 33.1%, tempering optimism as persistent 3% monthly readings signal incomplete disinflation from 2025's 31%. Upside risks from global oil spikes tied to Iran tensions could add 0.3 percentage points to March, while sustained monetary tightening and real peso stability favor sub-30% outcomes. Key swing factor: March CPI data, due mid-April, testing if downward trajectory resumes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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