Trader skepticism dominates Polymarket odds for Anthropic's Claude surpassing meaningful thresholds on the FrontierMath benchmark by June 30, 2025, driven by the model's current dismal 1.9% score on this ultra-hard test of IMO-level math reasoning, released by Scale AI in November 2024. Claude 3.5 Sonnet lags behind OpenAI's o1-preview (10.6%) and Gemini 2.0 Flash (similarly low), highlighting competitive gaps in frontier reasoning amid Anthropic's deliberate safety-focused cadence. Key catalysts include potential Claude 4 training updates—rumored for early 2025 but unconfirmed—and developer conferences like possible Anthropic events, though benchmark creators note problems are unsolved even by top humans, tempering expectations for rapid leaps.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$47,034 Vol.
50 %+
54%
$47,034 Vol.
50 %+
54%
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader skepticism dominates Polymarket odds for Anthropic's Claude surpassing meaningful thresholds on the FrontierMath benchmark by June 30, 2025, driven by the model's current dismal 1.9% score on this ultra-hard test of IMO-level math reasoning, released by Scale AI in November 2024. Claude 3.5 Sonnet lags behind OpenAI's o1-preview (10.6%) and Gemini 2.0 Flash (similarly low), highlighting competitive gaps in frontier reasoning amid Anthropic's deliberate safety-focused cadence. Key catalysts include potential Claude 4 training updates—rumored for early 2025 but unconfirmed—and developer conferences like possible Anthropic events, though benchmark creators note problems are unsolved even by top humans, tempering expectations for rapid leaps.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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