Following the January 3, 2026, US drone and missile strike that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pivoted to direct oversight of Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, incorporating Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth into coordination channels mid-March alongside offshore F-35 patrols. No further aerial strikes on Venezuelan soil have occurred amid sanction enforcements, including late-March seizures of oil tankers destined for Russia and Cuba, and threats to indict Rodríguez. With Maduro facing a US drug trial on April 6 and efforts advancing to reposition Venezuela as a US energy partner, traders weigh low escalation risks against transition uncertainties like interim leadership instability or proxy interference from Iran and Russia.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$2,512,670 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
31 mars
28%
31 décembre
23%
$2,512,670 Vol.
31 mars
$166,815 Vol.
28%
31 décembre
$481,846 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026, US drone and missile strike that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pivoted to direct oversight of Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, incorporating Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth into coordination channels mid-March alongside offshore F-35 patrols. No further aerial strikes on Venezuelan soil have occurred amid sanction enforcements, including late-March seizures of oil tankers destined for Russia and Cuba, and threats to indict Rodríguez. With Maduro facing a US drug trial on April 6 and efforts advancing to reposition Venezuela as a US energy partner, traders weigh low escalation risks against transition uncertainties like interim leadership instability or proxy interference from Iran and Russia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,512,670Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the January 3, 2026, US drone and missile strike that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pivoted to direct oversight of Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, incorporating Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth into coordination channels mid-March alongside offshore F-35 patrols. No further aerial strikes on Venezuelan soil have occurred amid sanction enforcements, including late-March seizures of oil tankers destined for Russia and Cuba, and threats to indict Rodríguez. With Maduro facing a US drug trial on April 6 and efforts advancing to reposition Venezuela as a US energy partner, traders weigh low escalation risks against transition uncertainties like interim leadership instability or proxy interference from Iran and Russia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,512,670Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the January 3, 2026, US drone and missile strike that captured Nicolás Maduro, Washington has pivoted to direct oversight of Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, incorporating Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth into coordination channels mid-March alongside offshore F-35 patrols. No further aerial strikes on Venezuelan soil have occurred amid sanction enforcements, including late-March seizures of oil tankers destined for Russia and Cuba, and threats to indict Rodríguez. With Maduro facing a US drug trial on April 6 and efforts advancing to reposition Venezuela as a US energy partner, traders weigh low escalation risks against transition uncertainties like interim leadership instability or proxy interference from Iran and Russia.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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