Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability to no additional U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1 aligned all three major agencies at the current rating level and shifted the outlook to stable. This action incorporated already elevated debt-to-GDP near 120% and rising interest-to-revenue ratios while recognizing the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market liquidity as offsets. Congressional Budget Office projections through 2026 show ongoing deficits without abrupt deterioration that would typically prompt rating committees to act absent major governance shocks or sharp yield spikes. Key near-term catalysts include the 2026 budget process and any fiscal revisions, yet agency commentary indicates these factors are unlikely to trigger further action before year-end 2026.