Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUne autre dégradation de la dette américaine avant 2027 ?
Une autre dégradation de la dette américaine avant 2027 ?
Oui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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