The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate stands at 4.35% following its May 5 hike, and market-implied odds assign a 58.5% probability of no change at the August 11 meeting amid persistent but moderating inflation pressures. Recent CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April, aided by fuel excise relief, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.5%, signaling labor-market cooling that has tempered expectations for further tightening. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to energy prices and underlying inflation, keeping a 25-basis-point hike priced at 35.5%, yet major banks including NAB and CBA now forecast a hold through August with the next move likely lower in 2027. The RBA’s data-dependent stance, reinforced in post-May communications, leaves the August outcome sensitive to the June 16 decision and intervening releases on inflation and employment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNo change 60%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
50+ bps increase 3.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
11 août 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
60%
25 bps increase
33%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 60%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 5.1%
50+ bps increase 3.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
11 août 2026
50+ bps decrease
$207 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$146 Vol.
5%
No change
$140 Vol.
60%
25 bps increase
$602 Vol.
33%
50+ bps increase
$100 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate stands at 4.35% following its May 5 hike, and market-implied odds assign a 58.5% probability of no change at the August 11 meeting amid persistent but moderating inflation pressures. Recent CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April, aided by fuel excise relief, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.5%, signaling labor-market cooling that has tempered expectations for further tightening. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to energy prices and underlying inflation, keeping a 25-basis-point hike priced at 35.5%, yet major banks including NAB and CBA now forecast a hold through August with the next move likely lower in 2027. The RBA’s data-dependent stance, reinforced in post-May communications, leaves the August outcome sensitive to the June 16 decision and intervening releases on inflation and employment.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 9:08 PM ET
Volume
$1,196Date de fin
11 août 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 9:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate stands at 4.35% following its May 5 hike, and market-implied odds assign a 58.5% probability of no change at the August 11 meeting amid persistent but moderating inflation pressures. Recent CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April, aided by fuel excise relief, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.5%, signaling labor-market cooling that has tempered expectations for further tightening. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to energy prices and underlying inflation, keeping a 25-basis-point hike priced at 35.5%, yet major banks including NAB and CBA now forecast a hold through August with the next move likely lower in 2027. The RBA’s data-dependent stance, reinforced in post-May communications, leaves the August outcome sensitive to the June 16 decision and intervening releases on inflation and employment.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$1,196Date de fin
11 août 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 9:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate stands at 4.35% following its May 5 hike, and market-implied odds assign a 58.5% probability of no change at the August 11 meeting amid persistent but moderating inflation pressures. Recent CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April, aided by fuel excise relief, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.5%, signaling labor-market cooling that has tempered expectations for further tightening. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support upside risks to energy prices and underlying inflation, keeping a 25-basis-point hike priced at 35.5%, yet major banks including NAB and CBA now forecast a hold through August with the next move likely lower in 2027. The RBA’s data-dependent stance, reinforced in post-May communications, leaves the August outcome sensitive to the June 16 decision and intervening releases on inflation and employment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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