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Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?

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Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?

Per the UN, in the first week of the military offensive in Ukraine, "more than a million refugees from Ukraine crossed borders into neighboring countries, and many more are on the move both inside and outside the country. They are in need of protection and support." This market asks if there will be more than 4,000,000 Ukrainian Refugee arrivals between February 24, 2022 and March 24, 2022. If there are 4,000,001 or more Ukrainian refugees as measured by the resolution source by March 24, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source to this market will be information provided by https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. The number featured under the header "Refugee arrivals from Ukraine (since 24 February 2022)*", found in the top right of the resolution source page will be the primary source used to resolve this market. If the resolution source URL changes, the new resolution URL will be used. If the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time for this market, March 24, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET, the resolution source will be checked every 12 hours - specifically the csv data will be totaled between February 24 and March 24, 2022, with the final check being on March 31, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET. If the information remains unavailable at that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Per the UN, in the first week of the military offensive in Ukraine, "more than a million refugees from Ukraine crossed borders into neighboring countries, and many more are on the move both inside and outside the country. They are in need of protection and support." This market asks if there will be more than 4,000,000 Ukrainian Refugee arrivals between February 24, 2022 and March 24, 2022. If there are 4,000,001 or more Ukrainian refugees as measured by the resolution source by March 24, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source to this market will be information provided by https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. The number featured under the header "Refugee arrivals from Ukraine (since 24 February 2022)*", found in the top right of the resolution source page will be the primary source used to resolve this market. If the resolution source URL changes, the new resolution URL will be used. If the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time for this market, March 24, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET, the resolution source will be checked every 12 hours - specifically the csv data will be totaled between February 24 and March 24, 2022, with the final check being on March 31, 2022, 8:00:00 PM ET. If the information remains unavailable at that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?" has generated $166.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 7, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will there be more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees by March 24?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.