Market icon

Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?

Market icon

Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States is at 7.00% or above for the week ending on October 6, 2022, according to the resolution source. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previous available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable other credible reporting may be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States is at 7.00% or above for the week ending on October 6, 2022, according to the resolution source. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previous available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable other credible reporting may be used.

Related

Market icon

Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

84%
Market icon

Fed rate hike in 2026?

25%
Market icon

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

63%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 29, 2022. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average be 7% or higher on October 6?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.