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icon for Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Tech·AI

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

icon for Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Tech·AI

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

$13,664 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$13,664 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2026

$7,210 Vol.

6%

December 31, 2027

$3,900 Vol.

16%

December 31, 2028

$2,555 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.OpenAI's September 8 announcement that an internal swarm of AI agents produced a Lean-verified proof of finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations—establishing statement C in the Clay Mathematics Institute's official formulation—has driven recent trader sentiment. CMI responded on September 11 by noting the problem appears settled while stressing its deliberately unhurried review process involving peer scrutiny and credit assignment, leaving the status "active." Ongoing debate centers on whether the result, which relies on external forcing, fully addresses the core existence and smoothness question or meets historical expectations for a Millennium Prize resolution, compounded by priority disputes with mathematicians using similar AI-assisted methods on related Euler equations. Upcoming catalysts include further independent verification and any CMI updates on formal acceptance.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Volume
$13,664
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.OpenAI's September 8 announcement that an internal swarm of AI agents produced a Lean-verified proof of finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations—establishing statement C in the Clay Mathematics Institute's official formulation—has driven recent trader sentiment. CMI responded on September 11 by noting the problem appears settled while stressing its deliberately unhurried review process involving peer scrutiny and credit assignment, leaving the status "active." Ongoing debate centers on whether the result, which relies on external forcing, fully addresses the core existence and smoothness question or meets historical expectations for a Millennium Prize resolution, compounded by priority disputes with mathematicians using similar AI-assisted methods on related Euler equations. Upcoming catalysts include further independent verification and any CMI updates on formal acceptance.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Volume
$13,664
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2028" at 37%, followed by "December 31, 2027" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" has generated $13.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" is "December 31, 2028" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2027" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.