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Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?

$1,816,306 Vol.

OUTCOMERESULT

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,816,306
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Jan 27, 2025, 6:49 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Beware of external links.

$1,816,306 Vol.

Market icon

Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?

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01A1

$22,721 Vol.

No

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OpenAI

$56,887 Vol.

Yes

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DeepSeek

$292,541 Vol.

No

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xAI

$211,100 Vol.

Yes

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Anthropic

$603,092 Vol.

No

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Meta

$151,996 Vol.

No

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Zhipu AI

$134,441 Vol.

No

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Mistral

$112,768 Vol.

No

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Alibaba

$182,891 Vol.

No

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Nvidia

$47,868 Vol.

No

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About

Volume
$1,816,306
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Jan 27, 2025, 6:49 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.