Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
$1,816,306 Vol.
OUTCOMERESULT

01A1
$22,721 Vol.
No

01A1
$22,721 Vol.
No

OpenAI
$56,887 Vol.
Yes

OpenAI
$56,887 Vol.
Yes

DeepSeek
$292,541 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$292,541 Vol.
No

xAI
$211,100 Vol.
Yes

xAI
$211,100 Vol.
Yes

Anthropic
$603,092 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$603,092 Vol.
No

Meta
$151,996 Vol.
No

Meta
$151,996 Vol.
No

Zhipu AI
$134,441 Vol.
No

Zhipu AI
$134,441 Vol.
No

Mistral
$112,768 Vol.
No

Mistral
$112,768 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$182,891 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$182,891 Vol.
No

Nvidia
$47,868 Vol.
No

Nvidia
$47,868 Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Created At: Jan 27, 2025, 6:49 PM UTC
Volume
$1,816,306End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jan 27, 2025, 6:49 PM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$1,816,306 Vol.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?

01A1
$22,721 Vol.
No

OpenAI
$56,887 Vol.
Yes

DeepSeek
$292,541 Vol.
No

xAI
$211,100 Vol.
Yes

Anthropic
$603,092 Vol.
No

Meta
$151,996 Vol.
No

Zhipu AI
$134,441 Vol.
No

Mistral
$112,768 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$182,891 Vol.
No

Nvidia
$47,868 Vol.
No
About
Volume
$1,816,306End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jan 27, 2025, 6:49 PM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Beware of external links.
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