Name: When will the Government shutdown end?
Start: 2025-10-06T17:22:33.868256Z
End: 2025-11-15T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. 

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. 

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Before October 15

October 19-22

October 27-30

November 4-7

November 12-15

October 15-18

October 23-26

October 31-November 3

November 8-11

November 16+

Shutdown ends (neg)

When will the Government shutdown end? 

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. 

If OPM does not announce a shutdown on October 1, 2025 by 10:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “No Shutdown.” 

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. 

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

When will the Government shutdown end?

This market will resolve to “Yes”  if the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, after the U.S. federal government shutdown that started on October 1, 2025, ends, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government, within 45 days of the current government shutdown ending, begins implementing a policy under which both furloughed and excepted civilian federal employees will receive full back pay for the entire period of the current government shutdown. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Furloughed and excepted civilian employees refers to employees of federal agencies funded by annual appropriations who have either been furloughed on account of the lapse in appropriations or are excepted from such a furlough and are able to work without pay during the lapse. Uniformed military personnel, U.S. Postal Service employees, government contractors, or other employees of the federal government whose pay is not dependent upon annual appropriations are excluded.

The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The day following any such announcement will be day 1 of the 45 day count.

An official announcement of the commenced implementation of a policy that both furloughed and excepted federal employees will receive full back pay for the entire period of the government shutdown or a consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a policy is being implemented will both qualify for resolution, even if federal workers do not receive full back pay within this market’s timeframe. Informal announcements or announcements of intent to implement such a policy will not count.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report before the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is no longer shut down following the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Partial shutdowns are considered shutdowns, whereas announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as shutdowns.

Both a full release of the monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) and an official release of the underlying data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels the release or is otherwise rendered incapable of releasing it by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release as well as the OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/); however, a consensus of credible sources will also be used.

Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?

On November 4th, U.S. Department of Transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that if the government shutdown continues, the federal government may have to “close certain parts of the airspace” due to consequences of the shutdown. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-mass-chaos-may-need-close-some-airspace-if-government-shutdown-2025-11-04/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), or any other federal agency formally closes or suspends part of U.S. civilian airspace during the current U.S. government shutdown, due to circumstances clearly caused by the shutdown. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, the relevant government action must order closure or suspension of civilian airspace or flight operations, affect at least one major U.S. airport or airspace region in its entirety, and explicitly reference circumstances clearly caused by the current U.S. government shutdown as the reason for the action. 

Circumstances qualifying as clearly caused by the shutdown include staffing shortages of air traffic controllers or other essential air travel employees due to a lack of funding caused by the government shutdown.

Routine delays and disruptions caused mainly by weather, technical, or security issues do not count. Suspensions or closures due to emergencies which are not caused by the government shutdown do not count.

Closures, suspensions, or cancellations due to circumstances caused by the current U.S. government shutdown, but which are not tied to federal government action, do not count. 

If the current U.S. government shutdown ends and no such U.S. civilian airspace closure has been declared, this market will resolve to “No”. The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, or other federal agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Since September 19, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives has not convened for a legislative session. You can find more information here: https://federalnewsnetwork.com/government-shutdown/2025/10/speaker-johnson-keeps-the-house-away-as-he-fights-to-end-the-government-shutdown/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a non-pro forma floor session for the U.S. House of Representatives is officially scheduled by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purpose of this market, any non–pro forma session in which the House conducts legislative business, including debate, voting, or consideration of bills or resolutions, will qualify, whether it is convened by a call from Speaker Johnson or for any other reason.

Pro forma sessions will not qualify.

When a session is announced, the market will remain open until it is clearly established whether it constitutes a pro forma or non–pro forma session. If confirmed to be non–pro forma, the market may resolve immediately, regardless of whether or when the session ultimately occurs.

Note: If the House convenes for a non–pro forma session without prior public announcement, including under emergency or extraordinary procedures, this will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source will be official House communication channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the US House and Senate pass the same government funding bill by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the bill must actually pass both chambers of Congress (the US House and the US Senate). Passage of separate or different bills will not qualify; it must be the same piece of legislation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ceases regular publication of any of the following reports: monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Employment Cost Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, “ceases regular publication” means any of the following:

- The BLS officially announces it will no longer publish the report on its regular schedule.
- The BLS misses three consecutive scheduled releases of the report without providing the data within 30 days of each scheduled release date.
- The BLS announces that the report is discontinued, terminated, or permanently suspended.
- Legislative or executive action explicitly prohibits or defunds the publication of the report.

The following do NOT qualify as cessation:
- Temporary delays or postponements followed by subsequent publication (including delays caused by government shutdowns).
- Changes in methodology, seasonal adjustment, or calculation methods while continuing publication.
- Changes in publication frequency (e.g., monthly to quarterly) while maintaining regular releases.
- Format changes (e.g., digital-only, layout changes).
- Publishing preliminary or partial data with full data forthcoming.
- Changes to specific components within a report while the overall data series continues.
- Combining the report with other reports while still publishing the underlying data.
- BLS delays the jobs report due to a shutdown, then publishes it.
- BLS changes CPI methodology but continues publishing monthly CPI.
- BLS shifts employment data from monthly to quarterly.
- The Federal Reserve begins publishing employment data while BLS continues its own.
- BLS website outage delays posting, but data is released via other channels.
- BLS publishes preliminary data pending final adjustments.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. senators who vote "Yea" in favor of the next government funding bill during its first vote in the senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No vote by November 30" if no vote occurs on a new funding bill by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The first roll-call vote held on the next government funding bill will be used for resolution purposes, regardless of whether that bill is later enacted into law.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will 61 or more U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Senate” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve to “House” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

If no funding bill is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Partial or symbolic actions, such as introducing a bill without passage, will not qualify. The determination will be based strictly on the final passage of the funding bill that is ultimately signed into law.

If both chambers pass the qualifying bill on the same calendar day, the chamber whose roll call vote was completed earlier according to Congress.gov timestamps will be deemed to have moved first.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next government funding bill that becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2025, is a clean continuing resolution. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

A clean continuing resolution is defined as a funding measure that temporarily extends current government spending at the previous fiscal year’s levels for a specified period, without incorporating any additional policy provisions, earmarks, or modifications to agency operations.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next U.S. government funding law enacted includes a provision extending the Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium/enhanced tax credits beyond December 31, 2025.

It will suffice if such a law continues the availability of ACA premium tax credits beyond December 31, 2025, in any form, including, but not limited to, shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or reduced eligibility.

This market will resolve to "No" if such a funding law is enacted without any provision extending the ACA premium tax credits beyond December 31, 2025, or if no funding law is enacted by December 31, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act (H.R.5371) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will be terminated before its currently scheduled end date of July 4, 2026, at any point on or before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official policy announcements will qualify.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, restructuring announcements that do not specify termination, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal announcement of early termination will not be considered.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump end DOGE in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

When will the Government shutdown end?

November 4-7
$5,595,666 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

November 8-11
$990,351 Vol.
14%
0123456789
0123456789
%

November 12-15
$504,913 Vol.
31%
0123456789
%

November 16+
$1,831,601 Vol.
56%
0123456789
0123456789
%

Market Context

When will the Government shutdown end?

Rules

When will the Government shutdown end?

Market Context

When will the Government shutdown end?

About

Related

When will the Government shutdown end?

November 4-7$5,595,666 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.1¢buy No100¢

November 8-11$990,351 Vol.14%01234567890123456789%buy Yes14¢buy No86¢

November 12-15$504,913 Vol.31%0123456789%buy Yes32¢buy No68¢

November 16+$1,831,601 Vol.56%01234567890123456789%buy Yes56.2¢buy No43.8¢

Market Context

When will the Government shutdown end?

Rules

When will the Government shutdown end?

Market Context

When will the Government shutdown end?

About

Related

November 4-7
$5,595,666 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

November 8-11
$990,351 Vol.
14%
0123456789
0123456789
%

November 12-15
$504,913 Vol.
31%
0123456789
%

November 16+
$1,831,601 Vol.
56%
0123456789
0123456789
%