Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

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US strike against Houthis by Friday?

$16,206 Vol.

50% chance

Rules

On Thursday, January 11, 2024, it was reported US President Joe Biden would potentially give a statement on the situation involving the Houthis in the Red Sea.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory intended to strike Houthi targets between January 11, 12:00 PM ET, and January 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military attack" is any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a Houthi weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting, and specifically directed against Houthi targets. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.

The US striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Yemeni territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$16,206
End Date
Jan 12, 2024
Created At
Jan 11, 2024, 9:57 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$16,206 Vol.

Market icon

US strike against Houthis by Friday?

50% chance

About

On Thursday, January 11, 2024, it was reported US President Joe Biden would potentially give a statement on the situation involving the Houthis in the Red Sea.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory intended to strike Houthi targets between January 11, 12:00 PM ET, and January 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military attack" is any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a Houthi weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting, and specifically directed against Houthi targets. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.

The US striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Yemeni territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$16,206
End Date
Jan 12, 2024
Created At
Jan 11, 2024, 9:57 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.