Despite the AK Party's submission of a preliminary new constitution draft to President Erdoğan in late February 2026 and its roadmap for constitutional reform announced earlier that month, traders see only a 20% chance of an official referendum announcement by year-end, pricing "No" at 80%. The ruling alliance, bolstered by recent parliamentary seat gains via defections, still falls short of the 360 votes required in the 600-seat parliament for a direct referendum without opposition support. No bill has advanced to legislative committees or floor votes as of early April, amid competing priorities like economic reforms and skepticism over cross-party consensus in Turkey's polarized politics, where opposition parties resist potential executive power expansions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite the AK Party's submission of a preliminary new constitution draft to President Erdoğan in late February 2026 and its roadmap for constitutional reform announced earlier that month, traders see only a 20% chance of an official referendum announcement by year-end, pricing "No" at 80%. The ruling alliance, bolstered by recent parliamentary seat gains via defections, still falls short of the 360 votes required in the 600-seat parliament for a direct referendum without opposition support. No bill has advanced to legislative committees or floor votes as of early April, amid competing priorities like economic reforms and skepticism over cross-party consensus in Turkey's polarized politics, where opposition parties resist potential executive power expansions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite the AK Party's submission of a preliminary new constitution draft to President Erdoğan in late February 2026 and its roadmap for constitutional reform announced earlier that month, traders see only a 20% chance of an official referendum announcement by year-end, pricing "No" at 80%. The ruling alliance, bolstered by recent parliamentary seat gains via defections, still falls short of the 360 votes required in the 600-seat parliament for a direct referendum without opposition support. No bill has advanced to legislative committees or floor votes as of early April, amid competing priorities like economic reforms and skepticism over cross-party consensus in Turkey's polarized politics, where opposition parties resist potential executive power expansions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the AK Party's submission of a preliminary new constitution draft to President Erdoğan in late February 2026 and its roadmap for constitutional reform announced earlier that month, traders see only a 20% chance of an official referendum announcement by year-end, pricing "No" at 80%. The ruling alliance, bolstered by recent parliamentary seat gains via defections, still falls short of the 360 votes required in the 600-seat parliament for a direct referendum without opposition support. No bill has advanced to legislative committees or floor votes as of early April, amid competing priorities like economic reforms and skepticism over cross-party consensus in Turkey's polarized politics, where opposition parties resist potential executive power expansions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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