Market icon
Finance·S&P 500

S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?

Market icon
Finance·S&P 500

S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?

Ended: Mar 31

Ended: Mar 31

$144,565 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$144,565 Vol.

Polymarket

>$7,100

$2,188 Vol.

No

>$7,000

$2,982 Vol.

No

>$6,900

$15,680 Vol.

No

>$6,800

$2,892 Vol.

No

>$6,700

$13,243 Vol.

No

>$6,600

$40,497 Vol.

No

>$6,500

$67,082 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The S&P 500 closed March 31, 2026, at 6,528.52, reflecting a 2.91% daily surge driven by de-escalation signals in the Iran conflict and President Trump's optimistic remarks on a potential swift end to hostilities, which fueled a risk-on rebound to cap Q1. The index declined roughly 4% over March from an opening near 6,822, pressured by mega-cap technology underperformance, rising recession probabilities, and persistent inflation worries amid choppy Treasury yields and Fed funds rate expectations. Year-to-date, SPX is down about 4.6%, underscoring trader caution in prediction markets. Upcoming Q1 earnings reports, April CPI data, and nonfarm payrolls stand as pivotal catalysts for Q2 positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$144,565
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The S&P 500 closed March 31, 2026, at 6,528.52, reflecting a 2.91% daily surge driven by de-escalation signals in the Iran conflict and President Trump's optimistic remarks on a potential swift end to hostilities, which fueled a risk-on rebound to cap Q1. The index declined roughly 4% over March from an opening near 6,822, pressured by mega-cap technology underperformance, rising recession probabilities, and persistent inflation worries amid choppy Treasury yields and Fed funds rate expectations. Year-to-date, SPX is down about 4.6%, underscoring trader caution in prediction markets. Upcoming Q1 earnings reports, April CPI data, and nonfarm payrolls stand as pivotal catalysts for Q2 positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$144,565
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">$6,500" at 100%, followed by ">$7,100" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?" has generated $144.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?" is ">$6,500" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is ">$7,100" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "S&P 500 (SPX) above ___ end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.