Market icon
Economy·RBI

Reserve Bank of India decision in April

Market icon
Economy·RBI

Reserve Bank of India decision in April

Apr 8

Apr 8

No Change 98.4%

Increase <1%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket
NEW

No Change 98.4%

Increase <1%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Decrease

$2,154 Vol.

<1%

No Change

$4,325 Vol.

98%

Increase

$2,957 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy repo rate at 5.25%, with 98.5% implied probability, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) neutral stance maintained since February 2026 amid subdued CPI inflation at 3.21% in February—below the 4% target despite a modest uptick—and upgraded FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%. Recent rupee weakness from bond outflows and West Asia oil risks prompted RBI's FX interventions rather than rate tweaks, reinforcing status quo expectations ahead of the April 6–8 MPC meeting. Realistic challenges include a sharp oil-driven inflation surge exceeding 5% or unexpected growth contraction below 6%, potentially prompting a hike or cut.

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026.

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$9,436
End Date
Apr 8, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy repo rate at 5.25%, with 98.5% implied probability, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) neutral stance maintained since February 2026 amid subdued CPI inflation at 3.21% in February—below the 4% target despite a modest uptick—and upgraded FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%. Recent rupee weakness from bond outflows and West Asia oil risks prompted RBI's FX interventions rather than rate tweaks, reinforcing status quo expectations ahead of the April 6–8 MPC meeting. Realistic challenges include a sharp oil-driven inflation surge exceeding 5% or unexpected growth contraction below 6%, potentially prompting a hike or cut.

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026.

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$9,436
End Date
Apr 8, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Related

Market icon

Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on April 30?

21%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Reserve Bank of India decision in April" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Change" at 98%, followed by "Increase" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Reserve Bank of India decision in April" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Reserve Bank of India decision in April," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Reserve Bank of India decision in April" is "No Change" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Increase" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Reserve Bank of India decision in April" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.