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Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?

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Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?

5,500-6,000 100.0%

<5,000 <1%

5,000-5,500 <1%

6,000-6,500 <1%

Polymarket

$7,266 Vol.

5,500-6,000 100.0%

<5,000 <1%

5,000-5,500 <1%

6,000-6,500 <1%

Polymarket

$7,266 Vol.

<5,000

$1,386 Vol.

No

5,000-5,500

$495 Vol.

No

5,500-6,000

$1,061 Vol.

Yes

6,000-6,500

$1,300 Vol.

No

6,500-7,000

$1,428 Vol.

No

7,000-7,500

$803 Vol.

No

7,500-8,000

$148 Vol.

No

>8,000

$644 Vol.

No

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$7,266
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$7,266
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5,500-6,000" at 100%, followed by "<5,000" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" is "5,500-6,000" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<5,000" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.