TSA's official checkpoint data release showing 2,278,770 travelers screened on April 8 has solidified trader consensus at a near-certain 100% implied probability for the 2.2M-2.4M outcome, aligning with post-Easter normalization after spring break peaks exceeding 2.7M on April 2-6. Volumes have stabilized around 2.3M daily amid resolved March staffing shortages from funding disputes, reflecting steady domestic leisure travel without major disruptions like weather or holidays. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves minimal room for upsets, barring an unprecedented data revision—which historical patterns show is exceedingly rare—or audit discrepancies, though traders view such scenarios as negligible given the agency's verified reporting standards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.2M-2.4M 100.0%
<1.8M <1%
1.8M-2.0M <1%
2.0M-2.2M <1%
$5,421 Vol.
$5,421 Vol.
<1.8M
No
1.8M-2.0M
No
2.0M-2.2M
No
2.2M-2.4M
Yes
2.4M-2.6M
No
>2.6M
No
2.2M-2.4M 100.0%
<1.8M <1%
1.8M-2.0M <1%
2.0M-2.2M <1%
$5,421 Vol.
$5,421 Vol.
<1.8M
No
1.8M-2.0M
No
2.0M-2.2M
No
2.2M-2.4M
Yes
2.4M-2.6M
No
>2.6M
No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
TSA's official checkpoint data release showing 2,278,770 travelers screened on April 8 has solidified trader consensus at a near-certain 100% implied probability for the 2.2M-2.4M outcome, aligning with post-Easter normalization after spring break peaks exceeding 2.7M on April 2-6. Volumes have stabilized around 2.3M daily amid resolved March staffing shortages from funding disputes, reflecting steady domestic leisure travel without major disruptions like weather or holidays. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves minimal room for upsets, barring an unprecedented data revision—which historical patterns show is exceedingly rare—or audit discrepancies, though traders view such scenarios as negligible given the agency's verified reporting standards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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