Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?

Name: Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?
Start: 2026-03-01T05:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-03-31T20:00:00.000Z

Finance·MSFT

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?

4PM Mar 31

$70,094 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

$315

$1,497 Vol.

91%

$330

$0 Vol.

91%

$345

$1,101 Vol.

95%

$360

$348 Vol.

86%

$375

$0 Vol.

72%

$390

$0 Vol.

43%

$405

$2,135 Vol.

$420

$644 Vol.

$435

$105 Vol.

$450

$705 Vol.

50%

$465

$576 Vol.

$480

$30,915 Vol.

$495

$32,069 Vol.

$70,094 Vol.

$315

$1,497 Vol.

91%

$330

$0 Vol.

91%

$345

$1,101 Vol.

95%

$360

$348 Vol.

86%

$375

$0 Vol.

72%

$390

$0 Vol.

43%

$405

$2,135 Vol.

$420

$644 Vol.

$435

$105 Vol.

$450

$705 Vol.

50%

$465

$576 Vol.

$480

$30,915 Vol.

$495

$32,069 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 45% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) to close above $415 by end of March, reflecting caution amid broader tech sector rotation and sticky inflation data pressuring growth stocks. MSFT's recent fiscal Q2 earnings delivered 17% revenue growth to $62 billion, fueled by 31% Azure expansion tied to AI demand via OpenAI investments, yet shares have pulled back 5% from February highs near $430 on profit-taking. Key risks include the March 20 FOMC meeting, where persistent CPI readings above 3% could delay rate cuts, weighing on valuations at 34x forward P/E. Upcoming non-farm payrolls on March 8 may signal labor market resilience, potentially capping upside; watch $410 support for momentum shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC

Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026?

98%

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

93%

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?

31%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$345" at 95%, followed by "$315" at 91%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" has generated $70.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" is "$345" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$315" at 91%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $70.1K traded on “Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 95¢ for "$345" in the "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 95% chance that "$345" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 95¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 5¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?" market has an active community of 19 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of March?

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (19)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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