Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI drives current trader sentiment on the Watermelon release timeline. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang reported in a July 2026 town hall that the still-training model—using roughly 10× the compute of Muse Spark (Avocado)—had reached parity with GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim unverified by external evaluations. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the 🍉 codename on September 2 alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 launch, while August reporting cited an October target potentially linked to the Hatch agent platform. With Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend accelerating development but no public weights, API access, or benchmark cards released as of mid-September, traders weigh the October window against typical slippage in large-scale training runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$49,695 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
11%
October 31
65%
November 30
89%
October 15
26%
$49,695 Vol.
September 30
$16,973 Vol.
11%
October 31
$22,266 Vol.
65%
November 30
$10,456 Vol.
89%
October 15
$0 Vol.
26%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI drives current trader sentiment on the Watermelon release timeline. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang reported in a July 2026 town hall that the still-training model—using roughly 10× the compute of Muse Spark (Avocado)—had reached parity with GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim unverified by external evaluations. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the 🍉 codename on September 2 alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 launch, while August reporting cited an October target potentially linked to the Hatch agent platform. With Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend accelerating development but no public weights, API access, or benchmark cards released as of mid-September, traders weigh the October window against typical slippage in large-scale training runs.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$49,695End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI drives current trader sentiment on the Watermelon release timeline. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang reported in a July 2026 town hall that the still-training model—using roughly 10× the compute of Muse Spark (Avocado)—had reached parity with GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim unverified by external evaluations. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the 🍉 codename on September 2 alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 launch, while August reporting cited an October target potentially linked to the Hatch agent platform. With Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend accelerating development but no public weights, API access, or benchmark cards released as of mid-September, traders weigh the October window against typical slippage in large-scale training runs.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$49,695End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's internal push to close the frontier gap with OpenAI drives current trader sentiment on the Watermelon release timeline. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang reported in a July 2026 town hall that the still-training model—using roughly 10× the compute of Muse Spark (Avocado)—had reached parity with GPT-5.5 on unnamed internal benchmarks, a claim unverified by external evaluations. Mark Zuckerberg publicly teased the 🍉 codename on September 2 alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 launch, while August reporting cited an October target potentially linked to the Hatch agent platform. With Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend accelerating development but no public weights, API access, or benchmark cards released as of mid-September, traders weigh the October window against typical slippage in large-scale training runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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