Overwhelming polling dominance by Colin Allred in the Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary, showing him at 60-70% with runner-up Carl Sherman trailing by 45+ points, drives trader consensus for a larger Democratic margin versus the GOP contest. Incumbent Ted Cruz leads GOP polls at 75-85% over fringe challengers like Catherine Bodine, but a slightly more fragmented field implies a comparatively narrower lead around 65-70 points. Recent field-clearing endorsements for Allred and his fundraising edge—over $10 million raised—bolster this view, with early voting underway ahead of the March 5 Super Tuesday primary. While near-lock odds reflect wisdom-of-crowds certainty, realistic wildcards include protest voting boosting GOP challengers or anomalous low turnout favoring uncommitted ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLarger margin of victory in Dem or GOP Texas Senate Primary?
Larger margin of victory in Dem or GOP Texas Senate Primary?
Dems
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Dems
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary.
This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Overwhelming polling dominance by Colin Allred in the Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary, showing him at 60-70% with runner-up Carl Sherman trailing by 45+ points, drives trader consensus for a larger Democratic margin versus the GOP contest. Incumbent Ted Cruz leads GOP polls at 75-85% over fringe challengers like Catherine Bodine, but a slightly more fragmented field implies a comparatively narrower lead around 65-70 points. Recent field-clearing endorsements for Allred and his fundraising edge—over $10 million raised—bolster this view, with early voting underway ahead of the March 5 Super Tuesday primary. While near-lock odds reflect wisdom-of-crowds certainty, realistic wildcards include protest voting boosting GOP challengers or anomalous low turnout favoring uncommitted ballots.
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary.
This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary.
This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Dems
No dispute
Final outcome: Dems
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary.
This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Overwhelming polling dominance by Colin Allred in the Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary, showing him at 60-70% with runner-up Carl Sherman trailing by 45+ points, drives trader consensus for a larger Democratic margin versus the GOP contest. Incumbent Ted Cruz leads GOP polls at 75-85% over fringe challengers like Catherine Bodine, but a slightly more fragmented field implies a comparatively narrower lead around 65-70 points. Recent field-clearing endorsements for Allred and his fundraising edge—over $10 million raised—bolster this view, with early voting underway ahead of the March 5 Super Tuesday primary. While near-lock odds reflect wisdom-of-crowds certainty, realistic wildcards include protest voting boosting GOP challengers or anomalous low turnout favoring uncommitted ballots.
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary.
This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary.
This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Dems
No dispute
Final outcome: Dems
Overwhelming polling dominance by Colin Allred in the Democratic Texas U.S. Senate primary, showing him at 60-70% with runner-up Carl Sherman trailing by 45+ points, drives trader consensus for a larger Democratic margin versus the GOP contest. Incumbent Ted Cruz leads GOP polls at 75-85% over fringe challengers like Catherine Bodine, but a slightly more fragmented field implies a comparatively narrower lead around 65-70 points. Recent field-clearing endorsements for Allred and his fundraising edge—over $10 million raised—bolster this view, with early voting underway ahead of the March 5 Super Tuesday primary. While near-lock odds reflect wisdom-of-crowds certainty, realistic wildcards include protest voting boosting GOP challengers or anomalous low turnout favoring uncommitted ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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