Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania hold slim leads in the latest polling averages from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability for Democrats sweeping the core four battleground Senate races including West Virginia's open seat. Over the past week, strong Democratic fundraising edges—exceeding Republicans by millions in these states—and favorable early voting turnout signals in swing states have reinforced their positions against challengers Tim Sheehy, Bernie Moreno, David McCormick, and Jim Justice. Incumbency advantages and abortion-related ballot measures boosting turnout further support the pricing, though national GOP momentum from Donald Trump's campaign and an October 28 Ohio debate could narrow margins before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
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NEW
Nov 3, 2026
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Nov 3, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania hold slim leads in the latest polling averages from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability for Democrats sweeping the core four battleground Senate races including West Virginia's open seat. Over the past week, strong Democratic fundraising edges—exceeding Republicans by millions in these states—and favorable early voting turnout signals in swing states have reinforced their positions against challengers Tim Sheehy, Bernie Moreno, David McCormick, and Jim Justice. Incumbency advantages and abortion-related ballot measures boosting turnout further support the pricing, though national GOP momentum from Donald Trump's campaign and an October 28 Ohio debate could narrow margins before Election Day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania hold slim leads in the latest polling averages from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability for Democrats sweeping the core four battleground Senate races including West Virginia's open seat. Over the past week, strong Democratic fundraising edges—exceeding Republicans by millions in these states—and favorable early voting turnout signals in swing states have reinforced their positions against challengers Tim Sheehy, Bernie Moreno, David McCormick, and Jim Justice. Incumbency advantages and abortion-related ballot measures boosting turnout further support the pricing, though national GOP momentum from Donald Trump's campaign and an October 28 Ohio debate could narrow margins before Election Day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania hold slim leads in the latest polling averages from aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability for Democrats sweeping the core four battleground Senate races including West Virginia's open seat. Over the past week, strong Democratic fundraising edges—exceeding Republicans by millions in these states—and favorable early voting turnout signals in swing states have reinforced their positions against challengers Tim Sheehy, Bernie Moreno, David McCormick, and Jim Justice. Incumbency advantages and abortion-related ballot measures boosting turnout further support the pricing, though national GOP momentum from Donald Trump's campaign and an October 28 Ohio debate could narrow margins before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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