Polymarket traders show closely matched implied probabilities for India annual CPI inflation in 2026, with 2.25%-2.99% at 34.5% edging 4.50%+ at 33.5%, reflecting split sentiment on recent February data printing at 3.21%—a 10-month high driven by food prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% fiscal year 2026 (ending March) forecast amid subdued core pressures. The government's March 25 retention of its 4% target through 2031 provides continuity, while wholesale inflation rose to 2.13% in February, signaling modest passthrough risks from global oil amid geopolitical tensions. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 12 and RBI's April policy review, which could clarify FY27 projections starting at 4.0% for Q1, potentially tipping the annual calendar average toward or above target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2.25% to 2.99% 36%
4.50%+ 32%
3.75% to 4.49% 15%
1.50% to 2.24% 14%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
10%
0.75% to 1.49%
5%
1.50% to 2.24%
14%
2.25% to 2.99%
36%
3.00% to 3.74%
11%
3.75% to 4.49%
15%
4.50%+
32%
2.25% to 2.99% 36%
4.50%+ 32%
3.75% to 4.49% 15%
1.50% to 2.24% 14%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$568 Vol.
10%
0.75% to 1.49%
$271 Vol.
5%
1.50% to 2.24%
$340 Vol.
14%
2.25% to 2.99%
$22,328 Vol.
36%
3.00% to 3.74%
$375 Vol.
11%
3.75% to 4.49%
$22,735 Vol.
15%
4.50%+
$10,633 Vol.
32%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders show closely matched implied probabilities for India annual CPI inflation in 2026, with 2.25%-2.99% at 34.5% edging 4.50%+ at 33.5%, reflecting split sentiment on recent February data printing at 3.21%—a 10-month high driven by food prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% fiscal year 2026 (ending March) forecast amid subdued core pressures. The government's March 25 retention of its 4% target through 2031 provides continuity, while wholesale inflation rose to 2.13% in February, signaling modest passthrough risks from global oil amid geopolitical tensions. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 12 and RBI's April policy review, which could clarify FY27 projections starting at 4.0% for Q1, potentially tipping the annual calendar average toward or above target.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$57,251End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders show closely matched implied probabilities for India annual CPI inflation in 2026, with 2.25%-2.99% at 34.5% edging 4.50%+ at 33.5%, reflecting split sentiment on recent February data printing at 3.21%—a 10-month high driven by food prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% fiscal year 2026 (ending March) forecast amid subdued core pressures. The government's March 25 retention of its 4% target through 2031 provides continuity, while wholesale inflation rose to 2.13% in February, signaling modest passthrough risks from global oil amid geopolitical tensions. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 12 and RBI's April policy review, which could clarify FY27 projections starting at 4.0% for Q1, potentially tipping the annual calendar average toward or above target.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$57,251End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show closely matched implied probabilities for India annual CPI inflation in 2026, with 2.25%-2.99% at 34.5% edging 4.50%+ at 33.5%, reflecting split sentiment on recent February data printing at 3.21%—a 10-month high driven by food prices—against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2.1% fiscal year 2026 (ending March) forecast amid subdued core pressures. The government's March 25 retention of its 4% target through 2031 provides continuity, while wholesale inflation rose to 2.13% in February, signaling modest passthrough risks from global oil amid geopolitical tensions. Key swing factors include the March CPI release on April 12 and RBI's April policy review, which could clarify FY27 projections starting at 4.0% for Q1, potentially tipping the annual calendar average toward or above target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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