MetService's latest observations from Wellington International Airport station—the market's resolution source—show midday temperatures already reaching 20.2°C under high-pressure dominance delivering clear skies, light winds, and ample sunshine, driving trader consensus to a 99.9% implied probability for a 20°C high on April 2. Forecast models align on a daytime maximum of 19–20°C with developing northerlies preventing cooler sea breezes, consistent with NIWA's seasonal outlook for near- or above-average autumn temperatures in the region. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine stratus layer or sudden southerly shift capping temps at 19°C or below, though current atmospheric stability and solar heating make this improbable as the afternoon peak approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on April 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 2?
20°C 99.8%
17°C <1%
21°C or higher <1%
$193,924 Vol.
$193,924 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
17°C
<1%
20°C
100%
21°C or higher
<1%
20°C 99.8%
17°C <1%
21°C or higher <1%
$193,924 Vol.
$193,924 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
17°C
$24,786 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$58,108 Vol.
100%
21°C or higher
$21,756 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest observations from Wellington International Airport station—the market's resolution source—show midday temperatures already reaching 20.2°C under high-pressure dominance delivering clear skies, light winds, and ample sunshine, driving trader consensus to a 99.9% implied probability for a 20°C high on April 2. Forecast models align on a daytime maximum of 19–20°C with developing northerlies preventing cooler sea breezes, consistent with NIWA's seasonal outlook for near- or above-average autumn temperatures in the region. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine stratus layer or sudden southerly shift capping temps at 19°C or below, though current atmospheric stability and solar heating make this improbable as the afternoon peak approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$193,924End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest observations from Wellington International Airport station—the market's resolution source—show midday temperatures already reaching 20.2°C under high-pressure dominance delivering clear skies, light winds, and ample sunshine, driving trader consensus to a 99.9% implied probability for a 20°C high on April 2. Forecast models align on a daytime maximum of 19–20°C with developing northerlies preventing cooler sea breezes, consistent with NIWA's seasonal outlook for near- or above-average autumn temperatures in the region. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine stratus layer or sudden southerly shift capping temps at 19°C or below, though current atmospheric stability and solar heating make this improbable as the afternoon peak approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$193,924End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
MetService's latest observations from Wellington International Airport station—the market's resolution source—show midday temperatures already reaching 20.2°C under high-pressure dominance delivering clear skies, light winds, and ample sunshine, driving trader consensus to a 99.9% implied probability for a 20°C high on April 2. Forecast models align on a daytime maximum of 19–20°C with developing northerlies preventing cooler sea breezes, consistent with NIWA's seasonal outlook for near- or above-average autumn temperatures in the region. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine stratus layer or sudden southerly shift capping temps at 19°C or below, though current atmospheric stability and solar heating make this improbable as the afternoon peak approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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