Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models converge on a daytime high near 13°C for Paris on April 2, driving the 44% implied probability for that outcome and positioning 14°C (26.5%) as the next likely per trader consensus. Overcast skies and light midday showers on April 1 suppressed temperatures around 10°C—3°C above April normals—reflecting persistent low-pressure influence and light winds (10-15 km/h) limiting insolation tomorrow. Afternoon conditions may feature partial clearing, but cloud cover caps warming, aligning with historical early-April variability where highs average 14°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Overnight model updates could refine probabilities ahead of official observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on April 2?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 2?
13°C 47%
14°C 28%
12°C 17%
15°C 8%
$22,967 Vol.
$22,967 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
17%
13°C
47%
14°C
28%
15°C
8%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 47%
14°C 28%
12°C 17%
15°C 8%
$22,967 Vol.
$22,967 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
17%
13°C
47%
14°C
28%
15°C
8%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models converge on a daytime high near 13°C for Paris on April 2, driving the 44% implied probability for that outcome and positioning 14°C (26.5%) as the next likely per trader consensus. Overcast skies and light midday showers on April 1 suppressed temperatures around 10°C—3°C above April normals—reflecting persistent low-pressure influence and light winds (10-15 km/h) limiting insolation tomorrow. Afternoon conditions may feature partial clearing, but cloud cover caps warming, aligning with historical early-April variability where highs average 14°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Overnight model updates could refine probabilities ahead of official observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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